North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-04-18,1006,1496,Daily Model Output
2017-04-19,1034,1639
2017-04-20,1108,1786
2017-04-21,1115,1743
2017-04-22,1036,1704
2017-04-23,809,1375
2017-04-24,792,1309
2017-04-25,869,1438
2017-04-26,955,1561
2017-04-27,964,1589
2017-04-28,837,1502,ESP Model Output
2017-04-29,815,1480
2017-04-30,848,1529
2017-05-01,907,1541
2017-05-02,874,1558
2017-05-03,887,1560
2017-05-04,928,1616
2017-05-05,896,1542
2017-05-06,1031,1676
2017-05-07,1044,1698
2017-05-08,1011,1736
2017-05-09,1045,1709
2017-05-10,1139,1784
2017-05-11,1146,1848
2017-05-12,1107,1746
2017-05-13,1069,1743
2017-05-14,1082,1682
2017-05-15,1167,1810
2017-05-16,1252,1846
2017-05-17,1304,1909
2017-05-18,1355,1965
2017-05-19,1286,1922
2017-05-20,1298,1918
2017-05-21,1228,1854
2017-05-22,1213,1800
2017-05-23,1286,1856
2017-05-24,1231,1786
2017-05-25,1300,1795
2017-05-26,1194,1762
2017-05-27,1209,1769
2017-05-28,1245,1797
2017-05-29,1234,1796
2017-05-30,1211,1764
2017-05-31,1175,1670
2017-06-01,1109,1644
2017-06-02,1112,1580
2017-06-03,1186,1674
2017-06-04,1211,1739
2017-06-05,1184,1631
2017-06-06,1171,1610
2017-06-07,1213,1619
2017-06-08,1258,1636
2017-06-09,1189,1575
2017-06-10,1165,1603
2017-06-11,1109,1432
2017-06-12,1027,1417
2017-06-13,1060,1391
2017-06-14,1054,1372
2017-06-15,1016,1341
2017-06-16,995,1287
2017-06-17,1016,1297
2017-06-18,989,1234
2017-06-19,948,1177
2017-06-20,913,1132
2017-06-21,905,1084
2017-06-22,858,1052
2017-06-23,826,1016
2017-06-24,816,1023
2017-06-25,788,968
2017-06-26,724,893
2017-06-27,718,872
2017-06-28,639,784
2017-06-29,622,767
2017-06-30,576,715
2017-07-01,549,658
2017-07-02,506,628
2017-07-03,497,616
2017-07-04,432,543
2017-07-05,436,554
2017-07-06,401,504
2017-07-07,360,461
2017-07-08,338,432
2017-07-09,306,411
2017-07-10,282,376
2017-07-11,267,369
2017-07-12,250,339
2017-07-13,237,319
2017-07-14,228,308
2017-07-15,214,289
2017-07-16,204,277
2017-07-17,204,268
2017-07-18,189,254
2017-07-19,179,244
2017-07-20,171,235
2017-07-21,164,226
2017-07-22,159,219
2017-07-23,152,209
2017-07-24,148,203
2017-07-25,145,196
2017-07-26,137,191
2017-07-27,133,183
2017-07-28,132,181
2017-07-29,128,176
2017-07-30,124,173
2017-07-31,120,168


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.