North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: April 19 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-04-20,1097,1770,Daily Model Output
2017-04-21,1012,1662
2017-04-22,905,1573
2017-04-23,704,1250
2017-04-24,800,1324
2017-04-25,954,1574
2017-04-26,881,1492
2017-04-27,697,1221
2017-04-28,570,1018
2017-04-29,498,899
2017-04-30,972,1609,ESP Model Output
2017-05-01,954,1635
2017-05-02,917,1575
2017-05-03,917,1541
2017-05-04,905,1603
2017-05-05,931,1583
2017-05-06,1009,1660
2017-05-07,1016,1656
2017-05-08,985,1674
2017-05-09,1008,1645
2017-05-10,1055,1715
2017-05-11,1068,1745
2017-05-12,1053,1642
2017-05-13,979,1626
2017-05-14,1018,1609
2017-05-15,1068,1686
2017-05-16,1154,1758
2017-05-17,1196,1773
2017-05-18,1255,1897
2017-05-19,1179,1813
2017-05-20,1173,1792
2017-05-21,1123,1818
2017-05-22,1106,1712
2017-05-23,1171,1746
2017-05-24,1152,1672
2017-05-25,1165,1703
2017-05-26,1102,1639
2017-05-27,1111,1604
2017-05-28,1124,1634
2017-05-29,1131,1655
2017-05-30,1126,1628
2017-05-31,1089,1582
2017-06-01,1039,1528
2017-06-02,1045,1518
2017-06-03,1103,1572
2017-06-04,1145,1650
2017-06-05,1121,1574
2017-06-06,1091,1527
2017-06-07,1120,1546
2017-06-08,1115,1558
2017-06-09,1138,1501
2017-06-10,1117,1525
2017-06-11,1074,1431
2017-06-12,989,1379
2017-06-13,1013,1357
2017-06-14,992,1320
2017-06-15,990,1301
2017-06-16,967,1253
2017-06-17,969,1234
2017-06-18,939,1174
2017-06-19,913,1142
2017-06-20,888,1098
2017-06-21,857,1060
2017-06-22,832,1027
2017-06-23,801,1006
2017-06-24,797,961
2017-06-25,757,917
2017-06-26,716,855
2017-06-27,660,793
2017-06-28,597,728
2017-06-29,587,728
2017-06-30,564,677
2017-07-01,537,658
2017-07-02,480,598
2017-07-03,443,564
2017-07-04,401,512
2017-07-05,362,467
2017-07-06,373,475
2017-07-07,337,435
2017-07-08,320,417
2017-07-09,296,387
2017-07-10,264,355
2017-07-11,257,350
2017-07-12,237,320
2017-07-13,225,302
2017-07-14,219,291
2017-07-15,204,275
2017-07-16,195,264
2017-07-17,198,267
2017-07-18,182,244
2017-07-19,172,233
2017-07-20,165,225
2017-07-21,158,216
2017-07-22,154,217
2017-07-23,147,201
2017-07-24,143,195
2017-07-25,143,194
2017-07-26,133,185
2017-07-27,128,182
2017-07-28,129,177
2017-07-29,128,172
2017-07-30,124,170
2017-07-31,120,165


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.