North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: April 20 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-04-21,1150,1819,Daily Model Output
2017-04-22,967,1660
2017-04-23,832,1394
2017-04-24,913,1464
2017-04-25,1040,1692
2017-04-26,929,1550
2017-04-27,757,1277
2017-04-28,646,1106
2017-04-29,552,966
2017-04-30,490,871
2017-05-01,793,1321,ESP Model Output
2017-05-02,783,1319
2017-05-03,837,1447
2017-05-04,882,1456
2017-05-05,889,1557
2017-05-06,972,1604
2017-05-07,970,1596
2017-05-08,930,1627
2017-05-09,992,1664
2017-05-10,1059,1724
2017-05-11,1053,1751
2017-05-12,1075,1679
2017-05-13,968,1640
2017-05-14,1016,1592
2017-05-15,1069,1742
2017-05-16,1190,1809
2017-05-17,1182,1854
2017-05-18,1278,1935
2017-05-19,1226,1875
2017-05-20,1212,1837
2017-05-21,1207,1855
2017-05-22,1130,1785
2017-05-23,1223,1784
2017-05-24,1182,1734
2017-05-25,1195,1769
2017-05-26,1143,1658
2017-05-27,1118,1651
2017-05-28,1124,1677
2017-05-29,1167,1704
2017-05-30,1181,1705
2017-05-31,1127,1639
2017-06-01,1073,1587
2017-06-02,1081,1576
2017-06-03,1141,1659
2017-06-04,1207,1708
2017-06-05,1154,1635
2017-06-06,1127,1583
2017-06-07,1150,1599
2017-06-08,1146,1593
2017-06-09,1187,1548
2017-06-10,1148,1547
2017-06-11,1095,1508
2017-06-12,1041,1443
2017-06-13,1059,1445
2017-06-14,1050,1379
2017-06-15,1041,1363
2017-06-16,997,1332
2017-06-17,1011,1291
2017-06-18,991,1238
2017-06-19,959,1198
2017-06-20,918,1134
2017-06-21,903,1095
2017-06-22,884,1066
2017-06-23,834,1036
2017-06-24,831,1022
2017-06-25,790,969
2017-06-26,757,922
2017-06-27,708,863
2017-06-28,637,789
2017-06-29,620,747
2017-06-30,601,727
2017-07-01,559,681
2017-07-02,498,620
2017-07-03,461,587
2017-07-04,416,532
2017-07-05,388,498
2017-07-06,383,486
2017-07-07,345,444
2017-07-08,342,438
2017-07-09,310,411
2017-07-10,278,374
2017-07-11,268,369
2017-07-12,243,333
2017-07-13,231,317
2017-07-14,227,302
2017-07-15,209,288
2017-07-16,199,275
2017-07-17,202,273
2017-07-18,188,252
2017-07-19,175,242
2017-07-20,168,234
2017-07-21,161,225
2017-07-22,159,221
2017-07-23,149,207
2017-07-24,147,202
2017-07-25,145,199
2017-07-26,136,191
2017-07-27,132,186
2017-07-28,131,183
2017-07-29,129,177
2017-07-30,125,173
2017-07-31,121,168


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.