North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: April 21 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-04-22,786,1295,Daily Model Output
2017-04-23,655,1096
2017-04-24,790,1244
2017-04-25,918,1488
2017-04-26,1010,1674
2017-04-27,910,1583
2017-04-28,718,1267
2017-04-29,571,1018
2017-04-30,500,899
2017-05-01,454,823
2017-05-02,750,1300,ESP Model Output
2017-05-03,823,1395
2017-05-04,863,1409
2017-05-05,873,1441
2017-05-06,929,1562
2017-05-07,909,1509
2017-05-08,936,1619
2017-05-09,971,1639
2017-05-10,996,1608
2017-05-11,1009,1649
2017-05-12,1048,1611
2017-05-13,930,1560
2017-05-14,986,1517
2017-05-15,1033,1671
2017-05-16,1143,1716
2017-05-17,1158,1784
2017-05-18,1222,1828
2017-05-19,1196,1803
2017-05-20,1153,1794
2017-05-21,1153,1793
2017-05-22,1102,1748
2017-05-23,1166,1702
2017-05-24,1124,1630
2017-05-25,1160,1727
2017-05-26,1101,1596
2017-05-27,1068,1575
2017-05-28,1080,1595
2017-05-29,1126,1681
2017-05-30,1089,1627
2017-05-31,1072,1618
2017-06-01,1066,1574
2017-06-02,1062,1557
2017-06-03,1125,1641
2017-06-04,1163,1652
2017-06-05,1102,1599
2017-06-06,1099,1538
2017-06-07,1114,1593
2017-06-08,1142,1571
2017-06-09,1171,1546
2017-06-10,1144,1509
2017-06-11,1083,1514
2017-06-12,1021,1415
2017-06-13,1063,1418
2017-06-14,1042,1344
2017-06-15,1028,1358
2017-06-16,985,1334
2017-06-17,1004,1276
2017-06-18,969,1212
2017-06-19,936,1186
2017-06-20,906,1135
2017-06-21,901,1088
2017-06-22,874,1057
2017-06-23,837,1028
2017-06-24,824,1010
2017-06-25,780,954
2017-06-26,741,896
2017-06-27,681,834
2017-06-28,609,754
2017-06-29,633,761
2017-06-30,595,724
2017-07-01,541,662
2017-07-02,482,598
2017-07-03,467,582
2017-07-04,412,526
2017-07-05,383,491
2017-07-06,359,461
2017-07-07,329,423
2017-07-08,323,422
2017-07-09,303,397
2017-07-10,276,370
2017-07-11,263,351
2017-07-12,242,332
2017-07-13,229,316
2017-07-14,225,301
2017-07-15,208,287
2017-07-16,198,275
2017-07-17,197,263
2017-07-18,186,252
2017-07-19,174,241
2017-07-20,167,232
2017-07-21,160,223
2017-07-22,158,216
2017-07-23,149,206
2017-07-24,146,200
2017-07-25,141,194
2017-07-26,136,189
2017-07-27,132,181
2017-07-28,128,180
2017-07-29,127,175
2017-07-30,123,171
2017-07-31,119,167


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.