North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: April 22 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-04-23,649,1120,Daily Model Output
2017-04-24,750,1186
2017-04-25,907,1462
2017-04-26,937,1563
2017-04-27,821,1392
2017-04-28,705,1225
2017-04-29,551,1012
2017-04-30,480,886
2017-05-01,523,934
2017-05-02,701,1152
2017-05-03,792,1325,ESP Model Output
2017-05-04,838,1414
2017-05-05,888,1487
2017-05-06,938,1577
2017-05-07,934,1603
2017-05-08,949,1645
2017-05-09,959,1661
2017-05-10,1046,1732
2017-05-11,1066,1722
2017-05-12,1038,1702
2017-05-13,981,1654
2017-05-14,1015,1603
2017-05-15,1069,1748
2017-05-16,1198,1815
2017-05-17,1207,1912
2017-05-18,1260,1942
2017-05-19,1231,1891
2017-05-20,1213,1864
2017-05-21,1208,1885
2017-05-22,1125,1864
2017-05-23,1243,1820
2017-05-24,1182,1758
2017-05-25,1223,1828
2017-05-26,1159,1719
2017-05-27,1167,1711
2017-05-28,1131,1690
2017-05-29,1220,1769
2017-05-30,1146,1744
2017-05-31,1156,1735
2017-06-01,1123,1665
2017-06-02,1107,1632
2017-06-03,1169,1722
2017-06-04,1227,1764
2017-06-05,1155,1680
2017-06-06,1148,1622
2017-06-07,1156,1706
2017-06-08,1211,1664
2017-06-09,1212,1627
2017-06-10,1201,1581
2017-06-11,1124,1599
2017-06-12,1082,1484
2017-06-13,1097,1467
2017-06-14,1053,1404
2017-06-15,1057,1361
2017-06-16,1011,1391
2017-06-17,1043,1349
2017-06-18,1003,1272
2017-06-19,975,1241
2017-06-20,942,1198
2017-06-21,949,1181
2017-06-22,907,1143
2017-06-23,897,1091
2017-06-24,849,1069
2017-06-25,813,999
2017-06-26,779,948
2017-06-27,742,918
2017-06-28,642,804
2017-06-29,676,833
2017-06-30,627,762
2017-07-01,596,724
2017-07-02,535,665
2017-07-03,510,628
2017-07-04,445,572
2017-07-05,426,537
2017-07-06,385,493
2017-07-07,366,472
2017-07-08,347,445
2017-07-09,317,430
2017-07-10,288,387
2017-07-11,282,374
2017-07-12,251,351
2017-07-13,238,331
2017-07-14,234,315
2017-07-15,215,299
2017-07-16,205,286
2017-07-17,206,276
2017-07-18,192,262
2017-07-19,179,251
2017-07-20,172,241
2017-07-21,165,232
2017-07-22,162,224
2017-07-23,152,214
2017-07-24,150,208
2017-07-25,147,200
2017-07-26,140,193
2017-07-27,135,187
2017-07-28,132,186
2017-07-29,130,180
2017-07-30,125,176
2017-07-31,122,171


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.