North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: April 23 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-04-24,812,1219,Daily Model Output
2017-04-25,924,1465
2017-04-26,859,1431
2017-04-27,676,1166
2017-04-28,572,1013
2017-04-29,517,929
2017-04-30,457,836
2017-05-01,418,764
2017-05-02,425,778
2017-05-03,601,984
2017-05-04,884,1557,ESP Model Output
2017-05-05,945,1582
2017-05-06,979,1632
2017-05-07,980,1667
2017-05-08,1002,1762
2017-05-09,1020,1729
2017-05-10,1137,1848
2017-05-11,1083,1840
2017-05-12,1107,1826
2017-05-13,1008,1769
2017-05-14,1056,1742
2017-05-15,1153,1807
2017-05-16,1227,1901
2017-05-17,1262,1974
2017-05-18,1299,2037
2017-05-19,1305,2017
2017-05-20,1285,1963
2017-05-21,1282,1994
2017-05-22,1181,1918
2017-05-23,1279,1921
2017-05-24,1239,1826
2017-05-25,1271,1923
2017-05-26,1228,1817
2017-05-27,1251,1858
2017-05-28,1180,1788
2017-05-29,1264,1849
2017-05-30,1216,1750
2017-05-31,1205,1787
2017-06-01,1148,1698
2017-06-02,1132,1670
2017-06-03,1222,1770
2017-06-04,1285,1818
2017-06-05,1191,1718
2017-06-06,1192,1685
2017-06-07,1188,1758
2017-06-08,1254,1735
2017-06-09,1251,1698
2017-06-10,1236,1626
2017-06-11,1173,1636
2017-06-12,1107,1510
2017-06-13,1118,1499
2017-06-14,1076,1486
2017-06-15,1070,1442
2017-06-16,1030,1418
2017-06-17,1079,1392
2017-06-18,1046,1333
2017-06-19,1025,1278
2017-06-20,980,1254
2017-06-21,1001,1235
2017-06-22,955,1213
2017-06-23,905,1143
2017-06-24,897,1107
2017-06-25,847,1033
2017-06-26,809,990
2017-06-27,795,972
2017-06-28,687,863
2017-06-29,713,865
2017-06-30,642,784
2017-07-01,633,759
2017-07-02,564,695
2017-07-03,523,650
2017-07-04,459,591
2017-07-05,444,566
2017-07-06,405,516
2017-07-07,372,485
2017-07-08,357,463
2017-07-09,328,439
2017-07-10,295,394
2017-07-11,290,386
2017-07-12,259,360
2017-07-13,244,338
2017-07-14,237,321
2017-07-15,220,305
2017-07-16,210,291
2017-07-17,210,283
2017-07-18,195,266
2017-07-19,183,255
2017-07-20,176,246
2017-07-21,171,236
2017-07-22,164,229
2017-07-23,156,219
2017-07-24,152,212
2017-07-25,150,205
2017-07-26,141,197
2017-07-27,136,191
2017-07-28,134,187
2017-07-29,131,182
2017-07-30,127,179
2017-07-31,123,173


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.