North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: April 24 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-04-25,961,1438,Daily Model Output
2017-04-26,855,1460
2017-04-27,710,1225
2017-04-28,620,1098
2017-04-29,541,972
2017-04-30,523,900
2017-05-01,462,834
2017-05-02,490,922
2017-05-03,566,995
2017-05-04,621,1024
2017-05-05,878,1418,ESP Model Output
2017-05-06,950,1566
2017-05-07,979,1623
2017-05-08,995,1678
2017-05-09,998,1680
2017-05-10,1097,1825
2017-05-11,1101,1839
2017-05-12,1119,1788
2017-05-13,1024,1738
2017-05-14,1033,1759
2017-05-15,1157,1805
2017-05-16,1204,1904
2017-05-17,1294,2043
2017-05-18,1329,2026
2017-05-19,1363,2039
2017-05-20,1301,1983
2017-05-21,1347,2084
2017-05-22,1232,1912
2017-05-23,1344,1988
2017-05-24,1264,1860
2017-05-25,1329,1985
2017-05-26,1287,1871
2017-05-27,1256,1907
2017-05-28,1241,1831
2017-05-29,1328,1919
2017-05-30,1243,1796
2017-05-31,1239,1817
2017-06-01,1208,1779
2017-06-02,1169,1734
2017-06-03,1254,1800
2017-06-04,1281,1835
2017-06-05,1219,1728
2017-06-06,1217,1733
2017-06-07,1214,1758
2017-06-08,1243,1768
2017-06-09,1275,1753
2017-06-10,1270,1704
2017-06-11,1184,1697
2017-06-12,1118,1565
2017-06-13,1165,1571
2017-06-14,1118,1537
2017-06-15,1083,1493
2017-06-16,1076,1445
2017-06-17,1094,1420
2017-06-18,1063,1361
2017-06-19,1034,1306
2017-06-20,1011,1289
2017-06-21,1025,1268
2017-06-22,973,1236
2017-06-23,914,1166
2017-06-24,918,1124
2017-06-25,869,1054
2017-06-26,824,1009
2017-06-27,815,988
2017-06-28,717,903
2017-06-29,735,908
2017-06-30,664,822
2017-07-01,638,766
2017-07-02,577,710
2017-07-03,538,662
2017-07-04,467,600
2017-07-05,459,575
2017-07-06,419,531
2017-07-07,389,499
2017-07-08,365,471
2017-07-09,341,438
2017-07-10,306,406
2017-07-11,293,394
2017-07-12,268,365
2017-07-13,252,345
2017-07-14,245,331
2017-07-15,227,312
2017-07-16,216,298
2017-07-17,211,287
2017-07-18,201,272
2017-07-19,188,261
2017-07-20,180,250
2017-07-21,176,240
2017-07-22,169,233
2017-07-23,159,222
2017-07-24,156,216
2017-07-25,150,208
2017-07-26,144,199
2017-07-27,139,192
2017-07-28,135,187
2017-07-29,133,186
2017-07-30,128,179
2017-07-31,124,175


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.