North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: April 25 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-04-26,709,1070,Daily Model Output
2017-04-27,553,925
2017-04-28,487,851
2017-04-29,445,782
2017-04-30,414,717
2017-05-01,420,715
2017-05-02,416,788
2017-05-03,482,889
2017-05-04,442,791
2017-05-05,434,736
2017-05-06,921,1489,ESP Model Output
2017-05-07,972,1623
2017-05-08,976,1681
2017-05-09,1018,1661
2017-05-10,1108,1801
2017-05-11,1099,1852
2017-05-12,1118,1835
2017-05-13,1045,1689
2017-05-14,1036,1759
2017-05-15,1157,1814
2017-05-16,1213,1922
2017-05-17,1325,2063
2017-05-18,1342,2052
2017-05-19,1376,2036
2017-05-20,1326,2011
2017-05-21,1351,2089
2017-05-22,1264,1920
2017-05-23,1356,2040
2017-05-24,1248,1880
2017-05-25,1334,2023
2017-05-26,1274,1874
2017-05-27,1267,1924
2017-05-28,1271,1868
2017-05-29,1354,1942
2017-05-30,1252,1853
2017-05-31,1270,1860
2017-06-01,1201,1806
2017-06-02,1197,1751
2017-06-03,1285,1839
2017-06-04,1312,1886
2017-06-05,1271,1771
2017-06-06,1265,1782
2017-06-07,1261,1813
2017-06-08,1253,1817
2017-06-09,1280,1800
2017-06-10,1284,1735
2017-06-11,1229,1703
2017-06-12,1166,1612
2017-06-13,1201,1633
2017-06-14,1156,1566
2017-06-15,1117,1544
2017-06-16,1057,1457
2017-06-17,1109,1461
2017-06-18,1076,1392
2017-06-19,1045,1328
2017-06-20,1031,1326
2017-06-21,1029,1304
2017-06-22,978,1225
2017-06-23,933,1184
2017-06-24,931,1156
2017-06-25,887,1086
2017-06-26,852,1029
2017-06-27,831,1012
2017-06-28,749,934
2017-06-29,738,928
2017-06-30,707,869
2017-07-01,661,791
2017-07-02,594,731
2017-07-03,530,674
2017-07-04,477,613
2017-07-05,466,585
2017-07-06,420,539
2017-07-07,390,501
2017-07-08,362,471
2017-07-09,337,438
2017-07-10,307,407
2017-07-11,299,395
2017-07-12,276,365
2017-07-13,260,346
2017-07-14,247,331
2017-07-15,233,313
2017-07-16,221,299
2017-07-17,214,286
2017-07-18,203,273
2017-07-19,192,261
2017-07-20,184,251
2017-07-21,178,241
2017-07-22,170,233
2017-07-23,162,223
2017-07-24,157,216
2017-07-25,152,208
2017-07-26,146,201
2017-07-27,141,193
2017-07-28,136,187
2017-07-29,133,185
2017-07-30,128,180
2017-07-31,125,176


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.