North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: April 26 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-04-27,600,957,Daily Model Output
2017-04-28,507,831
2017-04-29,457,758
2017-04-30,421,703
2017-05-01,391,657
2017-05-02,365,642
2017-05-03,342,673
2017-05-04,342,657
2017-05-05,421,711
2017-05-06,594,913
2017-05-07,918,1388,ESP Model Output
2017-05-08,942,1524
2017-05-09,914,1508
2017-05-10,1016,1644
2017-05-11,1067,1767
2017-05-12,1077,1770
2017-05-13,1019,1656
2017-05-14,1007,1741
2017-05-15,1163,1792
2017-05-16,1220,1916
2017-05-17,1344,2079
2017-05-18,1343,2093
2017-05-19,1378,2108
2017-05-20,1355,2098
2017-05-21,1406,2166
2017-05-22,1323,2011
2017-05-23,1362,2098
2017-05-24,1297,1976
2017-05-25,1378,2140
2017-05-26,1345,1967
2017-05-27,1297,1973
2017-05-28,1341,1971
2017-05-29,1412,2033
2017-05-30,1320,1925
2017-05-31,1307,1960
2017-06-01,1244,1875
2017-06-02,1243,1833
2017-06-03,1321,1918
2017-06-04,1360,1969
2017-06-05,1331,1851
2017-06-06,1302,1849
2017-06-07,1307,1883
2017-06-08,1277,1886
2017-06-09,1296,1886
2017-06-10,1320,1811
2017-06-11,1263,1765
2017-06-12,1209,1656
2017-06-13,1220,1660
2017-06-14,1179,1629
2017-06-15,1153,1595
2017-06-16,1091,1523
2017-06-17,1128,1501
2017-06-18,1098,1422
2017-06-19,1071,1389
2017-06-20,1053,1356
2017-06-21,1050,1301
2017-06-22,980,1247
2017-06-23,946,1208
2017-06-24,958,1183
2017-06-25,916,1114
2017-06-26,869,1069
2017-06-27,836,1026
2017-06-28,759,942
2017-06-29,762,938
2017-06-30,724,881
2017-07-01,678,835
2017-07-02,612,751
2017-07-03,547,691
2017-07-04,500,639
2017-07-05,477,601
2017-07-06,432,557
2017-07-07,400,509
2017-07-08,367,478
2017-07-09,343,441
2017-07-10,315,416
2017-07-11,308,409
2017-07-12,276,367
2017-07-13,261,348
2017-07-14,252,334
2017-07-15,235,314
2017-07-16,223,298
2017-07-17,215,288
2017-07-18,205,274
2017-07-19,194,261
2017-07-20,185,256
2017-07-21,178,245
2017-07-22,171,239
2017-07-23,164,227
2017-07-24,157,218
2017-07-25,152,210
2017-07-26,147,204
2017-07-27,141,196
2017-07-28,138,190
2017-07-29,135,185
2017-07-30,131,184
2017-07-31,127,176


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.