North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: April 27 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-04-28,508,857,Daily Model Output
2017-04-29,458,760
2017-04-30,422,704
2017-05-01,392,660
2017-05-02,376,676
2017-05-03,458,801
2017-05-04,504,826
2017-05-05,554,887
2017-05-06,733,1194
2017-05-07,901,1484
2017-05-08,869,1405,ESP Model Output
2017-05-09,866,1508
2017-05-10,913,1463
2017-05-11,1011,1655
2017-05-12,998,1670
2017-05-13,981,1599
2017-05-14,961,1691
2017-05-15,1086,1677
2017-05-16,1175,1863
2017-05-17,1270,2000
2017-05-18,1288,2042
2017-05-19,1328,2019
2017-05-20,1323,2063
2017-05-21,1378,2112
2017-05-22,1300,1988
2017-05-23,1332,2042
2017-05-24,1285,1956
2017-05-25,1329,2000
2017-05-26,1323,1954
2017-05-27,1275,1916
2017-05-28,1293,1866
2017-05-29,1314,1991
2017-05-30,1285,1879
2017-05-31,1279,1917
2017-06-01,1224,1842
2017-06-02,1209,1802
2017-06-03,1308,1891
2017-06-04,1333,1937
2017-06-05,1328,1842
2017-06-06,1288,1836
2017-06-07,1279,1875
2017-06-08,1252,1858
2017-06-09,1240,1807
2017-06-10,1292,1809
2017-06-11,1243,1722
2017-06-12,1169,1653
2017-06-13,1201,1663
2017-06-14,1166,1631
2017-06-15,1121,1577
2017-06-16,1078,1508
2017-06-17,1085,1462
2017-06-18,1074,1399
2017-06-19,1052,1377
2017-06-20,1035,1341
2017-06-21,1028,1286
2017-06-22,970,1231
2017-06-23,936,1164
2017-06-24,935,1139
2017-06-25,880,1096
2017-06-26,876,1077
2017-06-27,827,989
2017-06-28,750,930
2017-06-29,759,906
2017-06-30,716,850
2017-07-01,672,810
2017-07-02,596,727
2017-07-03,549,672
2017-07-04,498,633
2017-07-05,459,593
2017-07-06,429,544
2017-07-07,387,502
2017-07-08,356,472
2017-07-09,333,437
2017-07-10,314,412
2017-07-11,308,408
2017-07-12,274,363
2017-07-13,258,345
2017-07-14,252,328
2017-07-15,233,311
2017-07-16,224,297
2017-07-17,215,285
2017-07-18,203,272
2017-07-19,192,260
2017-07-20,184,256
2017-07-21,177,240
2017-07-22,170,236
2017-07-23,162,222
2017-07-24,156,218
2017-07-25,152,210
2017-07-26,147,203
2017-07-27,141,195
2017-07-28,138,189
2017-07-29,133,184
2017-07-30,129,182
2017-07-31,125,175


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.