North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: April 28 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-04-29,458,773,Daily Model Output
2017-04-30,422,714
2017-05-01,392,664
2017-05-02,402,693
2017-05-03,508,842
2017-05-04,565,882
2017-05-05,643,1017
2017-05-06,811,1324
2017-05-07,950,1555
2017-05-08,922,1535
2017-05-09,987,1630,ESP Model Output
2017-05-10,926,1557
2017-05-11,1019,1692
2017-05-12,1024,1670
2017-05-13,982,1663
2017-05-14,1020,1673
2017-05-15,1073,1697
2017-05-16,1150,1820
2017-05-17,1242,1961
2017-05-18,1282,2003
2017-05-19,1273,1915
2017-05-20,1280,1933
2017-05-21,1286,1998
2017-05-22,1254,1894
2017-05-23,1315,1981
2017-05-24,1237,1872
2017-05-25,1249,1879
2017-05-26,1233,1852
2017-05-27,1236,1819
2017-05-28,1203,1792
2017-05-29,1224,1861
2017-05-30,1216,1745
2017-05-31,1219,1804
2017-06-01,1165,1738
2017-06-02,1149,1674
2017-06-03,1240,1791
2017-06-04,1265,1818
2017-06-05,1248,1761
2017-06-06,1225,1738
2017-06-07,1233,1742
2017-06-08,1197,1718
2017-06-09,1194,1674
2017-06-10,1212,1683
2017-06-11,1184,1607
2017-06-12,1122,1587
2017-06-13,1128,1570
2017-06-14,1104,1532
2017-06-15,1060,1471
2017-06-16,1031,1415
2017-06-17,1026,1362
2017-06-18,1008,1300
2017-06-19,1005,1292
2017-06-20,983,1259
2017-06-21,993,1209
2017-06-22,922,1154
2017-06-23,886,1090
2017-06-24,865,1050
2017-06-25,844,1037
2017-06-26,812,982
2017-06-27,769,916
2017-06-28,697,851
2017-06-29,708,837
2017-06-30,658,782
2017-07-01,613,757
2017-07-02,540,668
2017-07-03,496,618
2017-07-04,452,580
2017-07-05,420,540
2017-07-06,383,492
2017-07-07,353,457
2017-07-08,331,439
2017-07-09,310,408
2017-07-10,288,386
2017-07-11,274,367
2017-07-12,256,343
2017-07-13,242,326
2017-07-14,232,310
2017-07-15,219,293
2017-07-16,211,280
2017-07-17,202,270
2017-07-18,192,259
2017-07-19,182,248
2017-07-20,174,241
2017-07-21,169,229
2017-07-22,162,223
2017-07-23,155,212
2017-07-24,150,207
2017-07-25,144,199
2017-07-26,140,194
2017-07-27,134,187
2017-07-28,132,181
2017-07-29,130,180
2017-07-30,126,176
2017-07-31,122,169


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.