North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: April 29 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-04-30,424,852,Daily Model Output
2017-05-01,393,779
2017-05-02,405,778
2017-05-03,471,848
2017-05-04,440,773
2017-05-05,490,812
2017-05-06,697,1139
2017-05-07,890,1465
2017-05-08,971,1603
2017-05-09,946,1573
2017-05-10,976,1621,ESP Model Output
2017-05-11,994,1696
2017-05-12,1011,1648
2017-05-13,1002,1671
2017-05-14,998,1634
2017-05-15,1046,1676
2017-05-16,1145,1820
2017-05-17,1246,1921
2017-05-18,1270,1977
2017-05-19,1261,1870
2017-05-20,1244,1881
2017-05-21,1288,1938
2017-05-22,1247,1881
2017-05-23,1271,1951
2017-05-24,1225,1838
2017-05-25,1241,1856
2017-05-26,1227,1827
2017-05-27,1227,1817
2017-05-28,1200,1729
2017-05-29,1208,1801
2017-05-30,1199,1733
2017-05-31,1214,1785
2017-06-01,1156,1706
2017-06-02,1154,1679
2017-06-03,1240,1753
2017-06-04,1252,1764
2017-06-05,1215,1761
2017-06-06,1203,1721
2017-06-07,1233,1732
2017-06-08,1200,1709
2017-06-09,1208,1685
2017-06-10,1209,1659
2017-06-11,1168,1611
2017-06-12,1116,1541
2017-06-13,1104,1553
2017-06-14,1100,1485
2017-06-15,1060,1454
2017-06-16,1018,1392
2017-06-17,1025,1326
2017-06-18,1009,1298
2017-06-19,999,1277
2017-06-20,993,1249
2017-06-21,978,1206
2017-06-22,930,1155
2017-06-23,887,1082
2017-06-24,883,1065
2017-06-25,855,1047
2017-06-26,801,974
2017-06-27,745,910
2017-06-28,674,831
2017-06-29,686,832
2017-06-30,653,776
2017-07-01,619,742
2017-07-02,541,661
2017-07-03,489,606
2017-07-04,445,569
2017-07-05,421,535
2017-07-06,382,491
2017-07-07,354,449
2017-07-08,337,434
2017-07-09,307,399
2017-07-10,284,383
2017-07-11,277,372
2017-07-12,252,334
2017-07-13,239,318
2017-07-14,232,304
2017-07-15,216,288
2017-07-16,210,276
2017-07-17,201,269
2017-07-18,191,257
2017-07-19,180,246
2017-07-20,173,241
2017-07-21,168,226
2017-07-22,162,223
2017-07-23,153,210
2017-07-24,150,207
2017-07-25,146,200
2017-07-26,141,195
2017-07-27,135,188
2017-07-28,131,182
2017-07-29,129,181
2017-07-30,125,174
2017-07-31,121,169


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.