North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: April 30 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-05-01,393,775,Daily Model Output
2017-05-02,416,804
2017-05-03,472,842
2017-05-04,437,778
2017-05-05,482,816
2017-05-06,680,1116
2017-05-07,917,1498
2017-05-08,1012,1653
2017-05-09,952,1568
2017-05-10,860,1441
2017-05-11,996,1701,ESP Model Output
2017-05-12,966,1562
2017-05-13,980,1610
2017-05-14,966,1588
2017-05-15,1016,1604
2017-05-16,1145,1747
2017-05-17,1224,1837
2017-05-18,1233,1896
2017-05-19,1241,1825
2017-05-20,1218,1851
2017-05-21,1233,1860
2017-05-22,1218,1832
2017-05-23,1246,1902
2017-05-24,1205,1772
2017-05-25,1186,1789
2017-05-26,1187,1783
2017-05-27,1202,1780
2017-05-28,1166,1694
2017-05-29,1164,1742
2017-05-30,1178,1714
2017-05-31,1182,1716
2017-06-01,1111,1653
2017-06-02,1101,1645
2017-06-03,1189,1707
2017-06-04,1194,1708
2017-06-05,1195,1728
2017-06-06,1176,1665
2017-06-07,1187,1675
2017-06-08,1175,1651
2017-06-09,1177,1627
2017-06-10,1171,1605
2017-06-11,1142,1581
2017-06-12,1082,1479
2017-06-13,1093,1502
2017-06-14,1071,1424
2017-06-15,1042,1403
2017-06-16,987,1343
2017-06-17,1003,1299
2017-06-18,984,1260
2017-06-19,969,1244
2017-06-20,978,1232
2017-06-21,956,1182
2017-06-22,903,1127
2017-06-23,866,1057
2017-06-24,859,1037
2017-06-25,829,998
2017-06-26,772,938
2017-06-27,717,877
2017-06-28,647,798
2017-06-29,660,803
2017-06-30,629,758
2017-07-01,608,725
2017-07-02,507,629
2017-07-03,475,591
2017-07-04,421,541
2017-07-05,401,507
2017-07-06,368,463
2017-07-07,348,443
2017-07-08,324,418
2017-07-09,296,386
2017-07-10,275,378
2017-07-11,268,362
2017-07-12,245,324
2017-07-13,232,309
2017-07-14,228,298
2017-07-15,210,281
2017-07-16,207,269
2017-07-17,198,265
2017-07-18,189,256
2017-07-19,176,243
2017-07-20,169,237
2017-07-21,165,223
2017-07-22,160,221
2017-07-23,150,208
2017-07-24,148,205
2017-07-25,143,198
2017-07-26,138,193
2017-07-27,134,186
2017-07-28,129,180
2017-07-29,126,178
2017-07-30,122,171
2017-07-31,119,166


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.