North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 01 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-05-02,450,784,Daily Model Output
2017-05-03,492,860
2017-05-04,488,857
2017-05-05,593,1005
2017-05-06,840,1411
2017-05-07,1066,1749
2017-05-08,1159,1887
2017-05-09,1149,1874
2017-05-10,1130,1845
2017-05-11,1104,1809
2017-05-12,949,1564,ESP Model Output
2017-05-13,980,1583
2017-05-14,975,1562
2017-05-15,1003,1601
2017-05-16,1135,1699
2017-05-17,1185,1804
2017-05-18,1249,1897
2017-05-19,1231,1827
2017-05-20,1228,1840
2017-05-21,1234,1842
2017-05-22,1219,1831
2017-05-23,1245,1885
2017-05-24,1204,1754
2017-05-25,1190,1760
2017-05-26,1173,1727
2017-05-27,1147,1716
2017-05-28,1137,1696
2017-05-29,1151,1721
2017-05-30,1169,1708
2017-05-31,1152,1697
2017-06-01,1102,1615
2017-06-02,1092,1608
2017-06-03,1162,1691
2017-06-04,1184,1707
2017-06-05,1177,1717
2017-06-06,1169,1648
2017-06-07,1185,1654
2017-06-08,1167,1632
2017-06-09,1166,1608
2017-06-10,1144,1591
2017-06-11,1131,1541
2017-06-12,1079,1457
2017-06-13,1091,1455
2017-06-14,1056,1392
2017-06-15,1026,1371
2017-06-16,977,1330
2017-06-17,990,1284
2017-06-18,970,1256
2017-06-19,945,1225
2017-06-20,955,1197
2017-06-21,955,1164
2017-06-22,891,1120
2017-06-23,862,1062
2017-06-24,845,1018
2017-06-25,811,974
2017-06-26,762,915
2017-06-27,720,880
2017-06-28,650,801
2017-06-29,663,806
2017-06-30,613,756
2017-07-01,606,733
2017-07-02,496,614
2017-07-03,455,572
2017-07-04,412,522
2017-07-05,389,489
2017-07-06,359,453
2017-07-07,350,445
2017-07-08,324,420
2017-07-09,297,387
2017-07-10,276,379
2017-07-11,268,362
2017-07-12,246,325
2017-07-13,233,309
2017-07-14,227,301
2017-07-15,211,282
2017-07-16,206,271
2017-07-17,197,262
2017-07-18,188,257
2017-07-19,176,240
2017-07-20,169,238
2017-07-21,164,224
2017-07-22,159,221
2017-07-23,150,209
2017-07-24,147,205
2017-07-25,142,198
2017-07-26,138,191
2017-07-27,133,185
2017-07-28,129,179
2017-07-29,126,177
2017-07-30,122,170
2017-07-31,118,165


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.