North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 02 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-05-03,586,769,Daily Model Output
2017-05-04,550,764
2017-05-05,598,837
2017-05-06,822,1190
2017-05-07,1134,1647
2017-05-08,1314,1922
2017-05-09,1304,1934
2017-05-10,1230,1825
2017-05-11,1037,1573
2017-05-12,861,1316
2017-05-13,1105,1795,ESP Model Output
2017-05-14,1074,1722
2017-05-15,1097,1728
2017-05-16,1205,1803
2017-05-17,1253,1922
2017-05-18,1314,1956
2017-05-19,1248,1861
2017-05-20,1244,1854
2017-05-21,1199,1848
2017-05-22,1210,1803
2017-05-23,1260,1875
2017-05-24,1212,1756
2017-05-25,1178,1759
2017-05-26,1152,1712
2017-05-27,1096,1634
2017-05-28,1116,1666
2017-05-29,1104,1662
2017-05-30,1111,1640
2017-05-31,1086,1618
2017-06-01,1079,1582
2017-06-02,1049,1537
2017-06-03,1110,1615
2017-06-04,1148,1647
2017-06-05,1150,1637
2017-06-06,1119,1562
2017-06-07,1134,1573
2017-06-08,1121,1539
2017-06-09,1109,1517
2017-06-10,1102,1497
2017-06-11,1070,1447
2017-06-12,1035,1372
2017-06-13,1048,1396
2017-06-14,1009,1331
2017-06-15,974,1284
2017-06-16,943,1289
2017-06-17,935,1200
2017-06-18,917,1174
2017-06-19,895,1166
2017-06-20,896,1128
2017-06-21,890,1101
2017-06-22,854,1067
2017-06-23,820,1001
2017-06-24,783,949
2017-06-25,745,897
2017-06-26,696,859
2017-06-27,670,814
2017-06-28,607,748
2017-06-29,622,757
2017-06-30,556,689
2017-07-01,568,695
2017-07-02,476,590
2017-07-03,416,521
2017-07-04,377,487
2017-07-05,348,451
2017-07-06,329,419
2017-07-07,328,421
2017-07-08,301,394
2017-07-09,281,366
2017-07-10,266,363
2017-07-11,251,347
2017-07-12,235,311
2017-07-13,223,296
2017-07-14,213,288
2017-07-15,203,270
2017-07-16,194,261
2017-07-17,189,250
2017-07-18,178,246
2017-07-19,170,230
2017-07-20,163,227
2017-07-21,157,217
2017-07-22,151,213
2017-07-23,145,202
2017-07-24,141,196
2017-07-25,137,190
2017-07-26,134,186
2017-07-27,128,181
2017-07-28,126,175
2017-07-29,122,170
2017-07-30,118,165
2017-07-31,115,161


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.