North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 03 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-05-04,615,752,Daily Model Output
2017-05-05,669,924
2017-05-06,895,1286
2017-05-07,1158,1683
2017-05-08,1305,1928
2017-05-09,1164,1770
2017-05-10,1039,1592
2017-05-11,972,1495
2017-05-12,852,1328
2017-05-13,819,1259
2017-05-14,1002,1462,ESP Model Output
2017-05-15,1071,1559
2017-05-16,1175,1677
2017-05-17,1243,1784
2017-05-18,1284,1846
2017-05-19,1224,1754
2017-05-20,1228,1759
2017-05-21,1181,1722
2017-05-22,1188,1708
2017-05-23,1244,1791
2017-05-24,1197,1679
2017-05-25,1170,1696
2017-05-26,1143,1649
2017-05-27,1092,1585
2017-05-28,1100,1583
2017-05-29,1078,1601
2017-05-30,1089,1573
2017-05-31,1085,1553
2017-06-01,1077,1545
2017-06-02,1047,1522
2017-06-03,1119,1594
2017-06-04,1137,1614
2017-06-05,1144,1619
2017-06-06,1107,1521
2017-06-07,1136,1573
2017-06-08,1121,1507
2017-06-09,1113,1488
2017-06-10,1111,1493
2017-06-11,1066,1445
2017-06-12,1041,1379
2017-06-13,1052,1392
2017-06-14,1005,1312
2017-06-15,974,1271
2017-06-16,949,1266
2017-06-17,946,1199
2017-06-18,913,1165
2017-06-19,907,1159
2017-06-20,900,1118
2017-06-21,894,1086
2017-06-22,845,1050
2017-06-23,814,989
2017-06-24,793,952
2017-06-25,752,898
2017-06-26,695,853
2017-06-27,660,796
2017-06-28,592,727
2017-06-29,607,735
2017-06-30,555,684
2017-07-01,578,690
2017-07-02,484,593
2017-07-03,421,525
2017-07-04,382,487
2017-07-05,347,447
2017-07-06,329,416
2017-07-07,327,409
2017-07-08,297,386
2017-07-09,278,354
2017-07-10,268,360
2017-07-11,250,345
2017-07-12,230,302
2017-07-13,219,288
2017-07-14,213,285
2017-07-15,199,264
2017-07-16,194,257
2017-07-17,187,248
2017-07-18,178,244
2017-07-19,167,226
2017-07-20,161,225
2017-07-21,157,216
2017-07-22,151,211
2017-07-23,145,200
2017-07-24,141,194
2017-07-25,136,188
2017-07-26,135,185
2017-07-27,127,179
2017-07-28,126,173
2017-07-29,123,169
2017-07-30,119,164
2017-07-31,116,159


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.