North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 04 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-05-05,630,849,Daily Model Output
2017-05-06,914,1291
2017-05-07,1210,1774
2017-05-08,1237,1842
2017-05-09,1157,1745
2017-05-10,1087,1674
2017-05-11,948,1492
2017-05-12,827,1297
2017-05-13,924,1394
2017-05-14,1080,1590
2017-05-15,1060,1601,ESP Model Output
2017-05-16,1132,1656
2017-05-17,1228,1819
2017-05-18,1262,1829
2017-05-19,1216,1767
2017-05-20,1222,1786
2017-05-21,1220,1768
2017-05-22,1233,1752
2017-05-23,1263,1821
2017-05-24,1170,1723
2017-05-25,1199,1709
2017-05-26,1124,1650
2017-05-27,1132,1645
2017-05-28,1116,1653
2017-05-29,1129,1602
2017-05-30,1142,1626
2017-05-31,1115,1624
2017-06-01,1076,1584
2017-06-02,1085,1580
2017-06-03,1164,1670
2017-06-04,1175,1657
2017-06-05,1181,1679
2017-06-06,1136,1593
2017-06-07,1184,1641
2017-06-08,1172,1585
2017-06-09,1161,1546
2017-06-10,1178,1550
2017-06-11,1114,1495
2017-06-12,1077,1451
2017-06-13,1092,1448
2017-06-14,1039,1380
2017-06-15,1002,1307
2017-06-16,975,1286
2017-06-17,971,1249
2017-06-18,948,1204
2017-06-19,928,1196
2017-06-20,933,1185
2017-06-21,915,1127
2017-06-22,871,1091
2017-06-23,831,1045
2017-06-24,826,997
2017-06-25,786,937
2017-06-26,740,889
2017-06-27,679,831
2017-06-28,610,749
2017-06-29,599,725
2017-06-30,571,691
2017-07-01,572,686
2017-07-02,491,600
2017-07-03,448,553
2017-07-04,412,509
2017-07-05,369,464
2017-07-06,348,436
2017-07-07,347,432
2017-07-08,308,404
2017-07-09,291,371
2017-07-10,276,367
2017-07-11,257,359
2017-07-12,238,315
2017-07-13,226,301
2017-07-14,218,294
2017-07-15,206,274
2017-07-16,198,264
2017-07-17,193,257
2017-07-18,181,246
2017-07-19,172,231
2017-07-20,165,227
2017-07-21,160,219
2017-07-22,154,218
2017-07-23,148,203
2017-07-24,143,198
2017-07-25,139,190
2017-07-26,139,189
2017-07-27,130,183
2017-07-28,130,178
2017-07-29,126,172
2017-07-30,122,167
2017-07-31,118,163


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.