North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 05 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-05-06,1034,1224,Daily Model Output
2017-05-07,1251,1675
2017-05-08,1273,1792
2017-05-09,1194,1722
2017-05-10,1166,1737
2017-05-11,1114,1652
2017-05-12,1001,1492
2017-05-13,1062,1565
2017-05-14,1152,1683
2017-05-15,1198,1742
2017-05-16,1264,1861,ESP Model Output
2017-05-17,1299,1875
2017-05-18,1292,1869
2017-05-19,1248,1813
2017-05-20,1259,1802
2017-05-21,1275,1839
2017-05-22,1261,1827
2017-05-23,1295,1878
2017-05-24,1203,1776
2017-05-25,1233,1724
2017-05-26,1154,1679
2017-05-27,1154,1677
2017-05-28,1139,1651
2017-05-29,1146,1640
2017-05-30,1142,1644
2017-05-31,1117,1651
2017-06-01,1077,1597
2017-06-02,1064,1586
2017-06-03,1143,1629
2017-06-04,1163,1651
2017-06-05,1139,1650
2017-06-06,1146,1591
2017-06-07,1188,1639
2017-06-08,1161,1574
2017-06-09,1156,1587
2017-06-10,1160,1528
2017-06-11,1096,1501
2017-06-12,1060,1451
2017-06-13,1087,1446
2017-06-14,1004,1352
2017-06-15,997,1302
2017-06-16,953,1267
2017-06-17,933,1201
2017-06-18,935,1198
2017-06-19,918,1180
2017-06-20,918,1166
2017-06-21,895,1104
2017-06-22,862,1083
2017-06-23,825,1024
2017-06-24,817,996
2017-06-25,771,924
2017-06-26,742,878
2017-06-27,678,806
2017-06-28,614,750
2017-06-29,587,722
2017-06-30,542,663
2017-07-01,546,659
2017-07-02,464,572
2017-07-03,423,526
2017-07-04,394,490
2017-07-05,362,454
2017-07-06,331,425
2017-07-07,339,424
2017-07-08,303,400
2017-07-09,286,374
2017-07-10,267,354
2017-07-11,253,336
2017-07-12,231,316
2017-07-13,219,297
2017-07-14,217,289
2017-07-15,199,272
2017-07-16,198,261
2017-07-17,190,252
2017-07-18,181,242
2017-07-19,167,230
2017-07-20,160,223
2017-07-21,159,215
2017-07-22,153,208
2017-07-23,144,200
2017-07-24,142,194
2017-07-25,137,189
2017-07-26,134,185
2017-07-27,128,179
2017-07-28,125,173
2017-07-29,125,168
2017-07-30,118,168
2017-07-31,114,162


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.