North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 06 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-05-07,1350,1411,Daily Model Output
2017-05-08,1575,1641
2017-05-09,1400,1465
2017-05-10,1253,1322
2017-05-11,1368,1854
2017-05-12,1209,1825
2017-05-13,1192,1806
2017-05-14,1276,1886
2017-05-15,1295,1903
2017-05-16,1275,1881
2017-05-17,1289,1857,ESP Model Output
2017-05-18,1274,1890
2017-05-19,1291,1840
2017-05-20,1267,1816
2017-05-21,1279,1873
2017-05-22,1271,1851
2017-05-23,1281,1852
2017-05-24,1222,1785
2017-05-25,1242,1750
2017-05-26,1168,1686
2017-05-27,1159,1688
2017-05-28,1152,1649
2017-05-29,1151,1651
2017-05-30,1147,1648
2017-05-31,1122,1660
2017-06-01,1087,1599
2017-06-02,1064,1583
2017-06-03,1124,1646
2017-06-04,1159,1648
2017-06-05,1137,1639
2017-06-06,1127,1611
2017-06-07,1203,1663
2017-06-08,1168,1599
2017-06-09,1166,1583
2017-06-10,1143,1534
2017-06-11,1076,1497
2017-06-12,1042,1448
2017-06-13,1057,1437
2017-06-14,990,1337
2017-06-15,1002,1291
2017-06-16,967,1255
2017-06-17,933,1205
2017-06-18,929,1192
2017-06-19,918,1168
2017-06-20,917,1151
2017-06-21,887,1100
2017-06-22,874,1091
2017-06-23,816,1025
2017-06-24,820,993
2017-06-25,773,927
2017-06-26,739,882
2017-06-27,681,818
2017-06-28,621,750
2017-06-29,588,717
2017-06-30,538,657
2017-07-01,542,656
2017-07-02,460,569
2017-07-03,419,523
2017-07-04,387,487
2017-07-05,349,442
2017-07-06,335,434
2017-07-07,337,431
2017-07-08,306,400
2017-07-09,285,368
2017-07-10,269,346
2017-07-11,253,339
2017-07-12,230,311
2017-07-13,219,293
2017-07-14,217,283
2017-07-15,199,271
2017-07-16,197,259
2017-07-17,190,250
2017-07-18,180,240
2017-07-19,167,228
2017-07-20,161,219
2017-07-21,159,216
2017-07-22,153,211
2017-07-23,143,199
2017-07-24,142,196
2017-07-25,137,189
2017-07-26,134,185
2017-07-27,128,179
2017-07-28,125,173
2017-07-29,125,168
2017-07-30,118,169
2017-07-31,114,160


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.