North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 07 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-05-08,1344,1529,Daily Model Output
2017-05-09,1384,1552
2017-05-10,1410,1561
2017-05-11,1365,1878
2017-05-12,1370,1996
2017-05-13,1301,1904
2017-05-14,1358,1946
2017-05-15,1393,1981
2017-05-16,1367,1955
2017-05-17,1298,1886
2017-05-18,1325,1960,ESP Model Output
2017-05-19,1268,1856
2017-05-20,1277,1893
2017-05-21,1267,1902
2017-05-22,1272,1851
2017-05-23,1261,1845
2017-05-24,1205,1768
2017-05-25,1198,1710
2017-05-26,1144,1678
2017-05-27,1137,1648
2017-05-28,1123,1623
2017-05-29,1134,1640
2017-05-30,1124,1624
2017-05-31,1114,1630
2017-06-01,1082,1590
2017-06-02,1044,1516
2017-06-03,1086,1567
2017-06-04,1121,1581
2017-06-05,1106,1601
2017-06-06,1107,1550
2017-06-07,1157,1616
2017-06-08,1154,1582
2017-06-09,1156,1554
2017-06-10,1097,1506
2017-06-11,1033,1440
2017-06-12,1024,1397
2017-06-13,1017,1391
2017-06-14,963,1297
2017-06-15,969,1251
2017-06-16,933,1222
2017-06-17,923,1177
2017-06-18,899,1131
2017-06-19,902,1129
2017-06-20,870,1115
2017-06-21,851,1046
2017-06-22,830,1056
2017-06-23,792,1005
2017-06-24,787,960
2017-06-25,746,910
2017-06-26,715,858
2017-06-27,668,807
2017-06-28,608,731
2017-06-29,556,673
2017-06-30,520,638
2017-07-01,513,622
2017-07-02,443,551
2017-07-03,403,506
2017-07-04,372,470
2017-07-05,334,429
2017-07-06,331,429
2017-07-07,318,403
2017-07-08,291,385
2017-07-09,271,352
2017-07-10,254,336
2017-07-11,241,322
2017-07-12,228,297
2017-07-13,217,284
2017-07-14,208,278
2017-07-15,198,266
2017-07-16,190,254
2017-07-17,185,244
2017-07-18,174,234
2017-07-19,166,225
2017-07-20,159,216
2017-07-21,154,215
2017-07-22,148,209
2017-07-23,142,194
2017-07-24,140,192
2017-07-25,135,186
2017-07-26,130,182
2017-07-27,126,176
2017-07-28,125,171
2017-07-29,122,166
2017-07-30,117,167
2017-07-31,114,157


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.