North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 08 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-05-09,1841,1870,Daily Model Output (20170508)
2017-05-10,1710,1770
2017-05-11,1616,1710
2017-05-12,1338,1696
2017-05-13,1335,1915
2017-05-14,1411,1998
2017-05-15,1395,1982
2017-05-16,1299,1885
2017-05-17,1205,1777
2017-05-18,1101,1643
2017-05-19,1340,1966,ESP Model Output (20170507)
2017-05-20,1301,1942
2017-05-21,1243,1869
2017-05-22,1242,1850
2017-05-23,1262,1859
2017-05-24,1216,1792
2017-05-25,1191,1733
2017-05-26,1144,1692
2017-05-27,1135,1643
2017-05-28,1110,1618
2017-05-29,1137,1647
2017-05-30,1125,1632
2017-05-31,1121,1641
2017-06-01,1076,1582
2017-06-02,1047,1530
2017-06-03,1088,1572
2017-06-04,1107,1574
2017-06-05,1093,1614
2017-06-06,1109,1567
2017-06-07,1163,1642
2017-06-08,1170,1610
2017-06-09,1150,1570
2017-06-10,1100,1488
2017-06-11,1037,1396
2017-06-12,1024,1376
2017-06-13,1017,1380
2017-06-14,971,1304
2017-06-15,965,1258
2017-06-16,938,1231
2017-06-17,918,1191
2017-06-18,891,1149
2017-06-19,885,1135
2017-06-20,872,1076
2017-06-21,840,1023
2017-06-22,827,1026
2017-06-23,778,986
2017-06-24,787,956
2017-06-25,741,892
2017-06-26,698,837
2017-06-27,658,808
2017-06-28,605,736
2017-06-29,550,671
2017-06-30,519,636
2017-07-01,500,608
2017-07-02,443,549
2017-07-03,402,504
2017-07-04,371,468
2017-07-05,334,427
2017-07-06,331,422
2017-07-07,312,400
2017-07-08,285,375
2017-07-09,267,351
2017-07-10,254,337
2017-07-11,240,320
2017-07-12,226,293
2017-07-13,215,280
2017-07-14,208,277
2017-07-15,195,262
2017-07-16,189,253
2017-07-17,181,242
2017-07-18,173,235
2017-07-19,165,220
2017-07-20,158,217
2017-07-21,153,211
2017-07-22,147,206
2017-07-23,141,194
2017-07-24,138,189
2017-07-25,133,185
2017-07-26,129,179
2017-07-27,125,174
2017-07-28,123,171
2017-07-29,122,167
2017-07-30,117,169
2017-07-31,114,158


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.