North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 09 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-05-10,1474,1521,Daily Model Output (20170509)
2017-05-11,1440,1534
2017-05-12,1294,1652
2017-05-13,1287,1867
2017-05-14,1393,1980
2017-05-15,1361,1948
2017-05-16,1244,1830
2017-05-17,1140,1712
2017-05-18,1085,1626
2017-05-19,1057,1565
2017-05-20,1228,1808,ESP Model Output (20170508)
2017-05-21,1219,1822
2017-05-22,1216,1760
2017-05-23,1215,1823
2017-05-24,1183,1741
2017-05-25,1128,1692
2017-05-26,1093,1635
2017-05-27,1077,1584
2017-05-28,1075,1576
2017-05-29,1081,1578
2017-05-30,1074,1565
2017-05-31,1072,1577
2017-06-01,1034,1527
2017-06-02,1002,1482
2017-06-03,1035,1510
2017-06-04,1039,1526
2017-06-05,1037,1527
2017-06-06,1051,1511
2017-06-07,1107,1553
2017-06-08,1103,1550
2017-06-09,1065,1483
2017-06-10,1055,1415
2017-06-11,994,1348
2017-06-12,975,1291
2017-06-13,971,1295
2017-06-14,912,1225
2017-06-15,897,1173
2017-06-16,893,1177
2017-06-17,876,1136
2017-06-18,833,1085
2017-06-19,816,1088
2017-06-20,821,1018
2017-06-21,785,969
2017-06-22,747,951
2017-06-23,730,926
2017-06-24,723,880
2017-06-25,661,814
2017-06-26,640,778
2017-06-27,601,742
2017-06-28,548,674
2017-06-29,493,613
2017-06-30,472,586
2017-07-01,447,552
2017-07-02,401,505
2017-07-03,363,461
2017-07-04,333,428
2017-07-05,304,396
2017-07-06,283,389
2017-07-07,286,379
2017-07-08,262,358
2017-07-09,248,327
2017-07-10,240,322
2017-07-11,229,309
2017-07-12,211,284
2017-07-13,202,270
2017-07-14,197,261
2017-07-15,184,248
2017-07-16,179,242
2017-07-17,172,231
2017-07-18,165,227
2017-07-19,156,214
2017-07-20,150,211
2017-07-21,144,202
2017-07-22,142,196
2017-07-23,134,188
2017-07-24,133,183
2017-07-25,129,178
2017-07-26,124,173
2017-07-27,121,168
2017-07-28,118,164
2017-07-29,119,164
2017-07-30,113,163
2017-07-31,109,155


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.