North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 10 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-05-11,1566,1698,Daily Model Output (20170510)
2017-05-12,1337,1699
2017-05-13,1350,1929
2017-05-14,1482,2117
2017-05-15,1439,2070
2017-05-16,1275,1854
2017-05-17,1145,1661
2017-05-18,1104,1597
2017-05-19,1078,1561
2017-05-20,956,1408
2017-05-21,1221,1786,ESP Model Output (20170509)
2017-05-22,1207,1770
2017-05-23,1226,1791
2017-05-24,1164,1696
2017-05-25,1124,1675
2017-05-26,1103,1614
2017-05-27,1091,1577
2017-05-28,1095,1585
2017-05-29,1096,1591
2017-05-30,1080,1567
2017-05-31,1078,1581
2017-06-01,1043,1534
2017-06-02,1005,1493
2017-06-03,1049,1524
2017-06-04,1034,1509
2017-06-05,1057,1529
2017-06-06,1061,1505
2017-06-07,1118,1568
2017-06-08,1107,1554
2017-06-09,1083,1504
2017-06-10,1073,1438
2017-06-11,1012,1372
2017-06-12,992,1317
2017-06-13,978,1291
2017-06-14,938,1230
2017-06-15,903,1189
2017-06-16,901,1187
2017-06-17,882,1147
2017-06-18,861,1088
2017-06-19,824,1100
2017-06-20,841,1049
2017-06-21,795,986
2017-06-22,760,976
2017-06-23,743,920
2017-06-24,737,896
2017-06-25,669,836
2017-06-26,655,791
2017-06-27,613,755
2017-06-28,555,680
2017-06-29,502,621
2017-06-30,482,595
2017-07-01,459,563
2017-07-02,409,512
2017-07-03,369,468
2017-07-04,340,434
2017-07-05,310,400
2017-07-06,289,405
2017-07-07,293,382
2017-07-08,269,360
2017-07-09,251,334
2017-07-10,243,324
2017-07-11,231,311
2017-07-12,214,287
2017-07-13,205,274
2017-07-14,197,261
2017-07-15,186,248
2017-07-16,183,246
2017-07-17,175,235
2017-07-18,168,227
2017-07-19,157,217
2017-07-20,151,214
2017-07-21,145,206
2017-07-22,143,197
2017-07-23,135,189
2017-07-24,134,183
2017-07-25,129,178
2017-07-26,125,173
2017-07-27,121,168
2017-07-28,118,165
2017-07-29,120,165
2017-07-30,114,160
2017-07-31,111,156


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.