North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 11 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-05-12,1337,1502,Daily Model Output (20170511)
2017-05-13,1380,1819
2017-05-14,1524,2150
2017-05-15,1419,2038
2017-05-16,1257,1832
2017-05-17,1054,1569
2017-05-18,982,1451
2017-05-19,977,1441
2017-05-20,836,1270
2017-05-21,687,1098
2017-05-22,1109,1576,ESP Model Output (20170510)
2017-05-23,1128,1631
2017-05-24,1087,1592
2017-05-25,1099,1592
2017-05-26,1053,1571
2017-05-27,1053,1558
2017-05-28,1061,1535
2017-05-29,1067,1559
2017-05-30,1046,1534
2017-05-31,1057,1531
2017-06-01,1014,1483
2017-06-02,989,1461
2017-06-03,1032,1485
2017-06-04,1013,1498
2017-06-05,1043,1486
2017-06-06,1042,1477
2017-06-07,1104,1557
2017-06-08,1086,1535
2017-06-09,1072,1501
2017-06-10,1072,1443
2017-06-11,1010,1380
2017-06-12,987,1324
2017-06-13,967,1273
2017-06-14,922,1216
2017-06-15,905,1202
2017-06-16,881,1186
2017-06-17,883,1145
2017-06-18,857,1095
2017-06-19,807,1106
2017-06-20,832,1030
2017-06-21,804,1002
2017-06-22,757,959
2017-06-23,740,902
2017-06-24,736,913
2017-06-25,682,847
2017-06-26,652,800
2017-06-27,626,771
2017-06-28,557,691
2017-06-29,512,637
2017-06-30,490,607
2017-07-01,472,580
2017-07-02,417,523
2017-07-03,377,478
2017-07-04,348,444
2017-07-05,316,408
2017-07-06,296,407
2017-07-07,297,388
2017-07-08,270,362
2017-07-09,255,340
2017-07-10,242,323
2017-07-11,230,313
2017-07-12,217,288
2017-07-13,207,278
2017-07-14,197,260
2017-07-15,188,249
2017-07-16,182,246
2017-07-17,174,237
2017-07-18,167,228
2017-07-19,159,218
2017-07-20,152,215
2017-07-21,147,208
2017-07-22,143,198
2017-07-23,137,189
2017-07-24,133,184
2017-07-25,129,180
2017-07-26,126,175
2017-07-27,121,170
2017-07-28,118,166
2017-07-29,119,164
2017-07-30,115,160
2017-07-31,112,155


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.