North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 12 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-05-13,1568,2164,Daily Model Output (20170512)
2017-05-14,1737,2378
2017-05-15,1730,2362
2017-05-16,1662,2261
2017-05-17,1398,1938
2017-05-18,1137,1607
2017-05-19,963,1384
2017-05-20,792,1154
2017-05-21,702,1032
2017-05-22,682,1017
2017-05-23,952,1420,ESP Model Output (20170511)
2017-05-24,971,1483
2017-05-25,1027,1478
2017-05-26,1009,1495
2017-05-27,1009,1473
2017-05-28,1008,1467
2017-05-29,1048,1540
2017-05-30,1032,1514
2017-05-31,1052,1516
2017-06-01,994,1475
2017-06-02,987,1447
2017-06-03,1025,1468
2017-06-04,998,1473
2017-06-05,1054,1525
2017-06-06,1058,1501
2017-06-07,1113,1574
2017-06-08,1101,1558
2017-06-09,1097,1546
2017-06-10,1106,1478
2017-06-11,1045,1432
2017-06-12,1003,1366
2017-06-13,1003,1320
2017-06-14,945,1256
2017-06-15,910,1220
2017-06-16,908,1206
2017-06-17,910,1173
2017-06-18,882,1123
2017-06-19,839,1141
2017-06-20,851,1086
2017-06-21,825,1051
2017-06-22,781,1020
2017-06-23,765,940
2017-06-24,769,941
2017-06-25,720,886
2017-06-26,685,848
2017-06-27,647,800
2017-06-28,577,716
2017-06-29,561,691
2017-06-30,530,654
2017-07-01,502,630
2017-07-02,454,571
2017-07-03,410,526
2017-07-04,372,489
2017-07-05,344,443
2017-07-06,317,425
2017-07-07,312,400
2017-07-08,280,378
2017-07-09,264,352
2017-07-10,258,335
2017-07-11,243,326
2017-07-12,225,302
2017-07-13,214,288
2017-07-14,204,275
2017-07-15,194,263
2017-07-16,189,253
2017-07-17,182,245
2017-07-18,174,235
2017-07-19,164,224
2017-07-20,157,223
2017-07-21,152,213
2017-07-22,148,205
2017-07-23,141,193
2017-07-24,137,186
2017-07-25,133,183
2017-07-26,130,178
2017-07-27,124,171
2017-07-28,122,167
2017-07-29,120,167
2017-07-30,117,163
2017-07-31,113,157


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.