North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 13 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-05-14,1788,2397,Daily Model Output (20170513)
2017-05-15,1789,2427
2017-05-16,1721,2322
2017-05-17,1436,1984
2017-05-18,1239,1722
2017-05-19,1044,1491
2017-05-20,871,1257
2017-05-21,766,1110
2017-05-22,718,1065
2017-05-23,824,1193
2017-05-24,1080,1534,ESP Model Output (20170512)
2017-05-25,1176,1657
2017-05-26,1173,1634
2017-05-27,1173,1591
2017-05-28,1162,1657
2017-05-29,1176,1659
2017-05-30,1184,1670
2017-05-31,1176,1651
2017-06-01,1124,1577
2017-06-02,1109,1525
2017-06-03,1088,1526
2017-06-04,1098,1564
2017-06-05,1152,1624
2017-06-06,1161,1608
2017-06-07,1207,1671
2017-06-08,1207,1685
2017-06-09,1188,1624
2017-06-10,1217,1591
2017-06-11,1134,1549
2017-06-12,1082,1467
2017-06-13,1082,1432
2017-06-14,1019,1345
2017-06-15,983,1311
2017-06-16,985,1276
2017-06-17,981,1253
2017-06-18,962,1213
2017-06-19,902,1156
2017-06-20,907,1153
2017-06-21,891,1133
2017-06-22,854,1100
2017-06-23,837,1024
2017-06-24,828,1018
2017-06-25,786,964
2017-06-26,739,904
2017-06-27,710,864
2017-06-28,640,785
2017-06-29,632,771
2017-06-30,596,726
2017-07-01,556,669
2017-07-02,505,643
2017-07-03,453,585
2017-07-04,406,532
2017-07-05,376,492
2017-07-06,367,465
2017-07-07,349,450
2017-07-08,320,411
2017-07-09,294,387
2017-07-10,281,372
2017-07-11,266,350
2017-07-12,244,319
2017-07-13,231,304
2017-07-14,220,290
2017-07-15,208,277
2017-07-16,200,268
2017-07-17,197,258
2017-07-18,189,247
2017-07-19,175,236
2017-07-20,168,234
2017-07-21,161,225
2017-07-22,157,215
2017-07-23,149,201
2017-07-24,147,196
2017-07-25,142,194
2017-07-26,137,187
2017-07-27,132,181
2017-07-28,129,175
2017-07-29,130,173
2017-07-30,125,169
2017-07-31,120,164


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.