North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 14 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-05-15,2019,2777,Daily Model Output (20170514)
2017-05-16,1799,2442
2017-05-17,1491,2070
2017-05-18,1319,1826
2017-05-19,1079,1570
2017-05-20,934,1431
2017-05-21,961,1410
2017-05-22,948,1331
2017-05-23,894,1305
2017-05-24,1012,1459
2017-05-25,1134,1589,ESP Model Output (20170513)
2017-05-26,1116,1560
2017-05-27,1161,1577
2017-05-28,1203,1701
2017-05-29,1213,1674
2017-05-30,1181,1669
2017-05-31,1176,1678
2017-06-01,1121,1591
2017-06-02,1113,1541
2017-06-03,1099,1545
2017-06-04,1108,1594
2017-06-05,1153,1630
2017-06-06,1175,1637
2017-06-07,1217,1703
2017-06-08,1215,1697
2017-06-09,1202,1655
2017-06-10,1226,1603
2017-06-11,1135,1565
2017-06-12,1082,1475
2017-06-13,1080,1461
2017-06-14,1036,1346
2017-06-15,990,1312
2017-06-16,985,1293
2017-06-17,994,1277
2017-06-18,969,1242
2017-06-19,920,1177
2017-06-20,909,1171
2017-06-21,898,1152
2017-06-22,851,1124
2017-06-23,831,1049
2017-06-24,828,1025
2017-06-25,786,985
2017-06-26,753,916
2017-06-27,740,874
2017-06-28,654,805
2017-06-29,631,775
2017-06-30,587,715
2017-07-01,549,662
2017-07-02,498,638
2017-07-03,448,582
2017-07-04,413,530
2017-07-05,388,494
2017-07-06,369,482
2017-07-07,358,455
2017-07-08,313,413
2017-07-09,294,392
2017-07-10,287,368
2017-07-11,268,350
2017-07-12,248,327
2017-07-13,236,306
2017-07-14,225,294
2017-07-15,206,281
2017-07-16,204,270
2017-07-17,196,262
2017-07-18,187,251
2017-07-19,179,236
2017-07-20,171,232
2017-07-21,164,223
2017-07-22,158,215
2017-07-23,150,204
2017-07-24,146,198
2017-07-25,141,193
2017-07-26,136,186
2017-07-27,131,180
2017-07-28,127,175
2017-07-29,129,176
2017-07-30,125,171
2017-07-31,121,165


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.