North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 15 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-05-16,1972,2654,Daily Model Output (20170515)
2017-05-17,1596,2172
2017-05-18,1297,1817
2017-05-19,1047,1515
2017-05-20,871,1283
2017-05-21,799,1191
2017-05-22,887,1297
2017-05-23,1004,1426
2017-05-24,1058,1506
2017-05-25,1123,1582
2017-05-26,1193,1654,ESP Model Output (20170514)
2017-05-27,1218,1671
2017-05-28,1232,1746
2017-05-29,1245,1779
2017-05-30,1246,1784
2017-05-31,1229,1755
2017-06-01,1158,1663
2017-06-02,1159,1619
2017-06-03,1149,1618
2017-06-04,1145,1668
2017-06-05,1193,1687
2017-06-06,1196,1675
2017-06-07,1253,1772
2017-06-08,1234,1720
2017-06-09,1231,1711
2017-06-10,1223,1665
2017-06-11,1140,1630
2017-06-12,1096,1476
2017-06-13,1092,1460
2017-06-14,1069,1388
2017-06-15,1010,1334
2017-06-16,998,1311
2017-06-17,1007,1312
2017-06-18,990,1276
2017-06-19,941,1219
2017-06-20,938,1216
2017-06-21,925,1167
2017-06-22,877,1141
2017-06-23,852,1084
2017-06-24,843,1046
2017-06-25,801,1007
2017-06-26,774,941
2017-06-27,760,900
2017-06-28,667,823
2017-06-29,642,780
2017-06-30,588,728
2017-07-01,541,674
2017-07-02,496,627
2017-07-03,456,576
2017-07-04,423,538
2017-07-05,397,507
2017-07-06,364,474
2017-07-07,348,457
2017-07-08,317,424
2017-07-09,297,396
2017-07-10,287,373
2017-07-11,275,370
2017-07-12,251,336
2017-07-13,238,316
2017-07-14,227,299
2017-07-15,212,284
2017-07-16,206,271
2017-07-17,197,266
2017-07-18,188,255
2017-07-19,180,238
2017-07-20,172,241
2017-07-21,165,231
2017-07-22,159,222
2017-07-23,150,209
2017-07-24,147,202
2017-07-25,142,199
2017-07-26,137,188
2017-07-27,132,182
2017-07-28,128,177
2017-07-29,129,180
2017-07-30,125,176
2017-07-31,122,169


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.