North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 16 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-05-17,1677,2197,Daily Model Output (20170516)
2017-05-18,1360,1898
2017-05-19,1081,1559
2017-05-20,893,1318
2017-05-21,910,1346
2017-05-22,1009,1421
2017-05-23,947,1363
2017-05-24,972,1405
2017-05-25,990,1420
2017-05-26,1015,1452
2017-05-27,1297,1758,ESP Model Output (20170515)
2017-05-28,1330,1855
2017-05-29,1305,1847
2017-05-30,1322,1864
2017-05-31,1280,1802
2017-06-01,1188,1696
2017-06-02,1212,1698
2017-06-03,1198,1673
2017-06-04,1225,1726
2017-06-05,1223,1754
2017-06-06,1216,1730
2017-06-07,1282,1820
2017-06-08,1260,1764
2017-06-09,1242,1748
2017-06-10,1217,1708
2017-06-11,1181,1645
2017-06-12,1106,1491
2017-06-13,1104,1479
2017-06-14,1061,1436
2017-06-15,1024,1357
2017-06-16,1007,1320
2017-06-17,1026,1311
2017-06-18,1000,1286
2017-06-19,948,1251
2017-06-20,951,1227
2017-06-21,940,1169
2017-06-22,891,1156
2017-06-23,866,1103
2017-06-24,844,1054
2017-06-25,806,998
2017-06-26,781,964
2017-06-27,755,917
2017-06-28,668,825
2017-06-29,633,785
2017-06-30,576,734
2017-07-01,543,679
2017-07-02,498,627
2017-07-03,458,581
2017-07-04,429,542
2017-07-05,397,508
2017-07-06,364,471
2017-07-07,356,455
2017-07-08,318,435
2017-07-09,298,397
2017-07-10,281,375
2017-07-11,275,377
2017-07-12,252,338
2017-07-13,237,317
2017-07-14,227,301
2017-07-15,214,285
2017-07-16,206,277
2017-07-17,197,268
2017-07-18,189,257
2017-07-19,179,239
2017-07-20,171,249
2017-07-21,164,239
2017-07-22,158,229
2017-07-23,152,210
2017-07-24,148,204
2017-07-25,142,200
2017-07-26,137,190
2017-07-27,132,184
2017-07-28,129,179
2017-07-29,131,181
2017-07-30,127,176
2017-07-31,123,170


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.