North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 17 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-05-18,1443,1975,Daily Model Output (20170517)
2017-05-19,1119,1634
2017-05-20,916,1393
2017-05-21,889,1376
2017-05-22,1042,1482
2017-05-23,1142,1612
2017-05-24,1044,1524
2017-05-25,974,1431
2017-05-26,958,1408
2017-05-27,1008,1470
2017-05-28,1265,1764,ESP Model Output (20170516)
2017-05-29,1269,1798
2017-05-30,1300,1832
2017-05-31,1263,1783
2017-06-01,1162,1652
2017-06-02,1199,1651
2017-06-03,1177,1664
2017-06-04,1181,1713
2017-06-05,1221,1732
2017-06-06,1214,1718
2017-06-07,1250,1774
2017-06-08,1256,1762
2017-06-09,1248,1732
2017-06-10,1196,1666
2017-06-11,1177,1670
2017-06-12,1106,1489
2017-06-13,1102,1479
2017-06-14,1062,1404
2017-06-15,1027,1351
2017-06-16,1002,1325
2017-06-17,1016,1317
2017-06-18,993,1277
2017-06-19,961,1250
2017-06-20,954,1241
2017-06-21,937,1182
2017-06-22,888,1134
2017-06-23,853,1064
2017-06-24,817,1016
2017-06-25,806,978
2017-06-26,778,956
2017-06-27,744,905
2017-06-28,678,826
2017-06-29,622,774
2017-06-30,576,708
2017-07-01,539,675
2017-07-02,495,624
2017-07-03,455,578
2017-07-04,424,539
2017-07-05,392,489
2017-07-06,359,466
2017-07-07,359,455
2017-07-08,321,437
2017-07-09,297,395
2017-07-10,281,374
2017-07-11,281,386
2017-07-12,252,342
2017-07-13,237,321
2017-07-14,227,305
2017-07-15,214,290
2017-07-16,206,279
2017-07-17,197,267
2017-07-18,188,255
2017-07-19,179,243
2017-07-20,172,249
2017-07-21,165,239
2017-07-22,158,231
2017-07-23,152,209
2017-07-24,147,205
2017-07-25,142,202
2017-07-26,137,191
2017-07-27,132,185
2017-07-28,128,181
2017-07-29,131,179
2017-07-30,127,174
2017-07-31,123,168


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.