North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 18 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-05-19,1165,1526,Daily Model Output (20170518)
2017-05-20,940,1333
2017-05-21,884,1345
2017-05-22,1036,1488
2017-05-23,970,1469
2017-05-24,1224,1722
2017-05-25,1132,1621
2017-05-26,1098,1587
2017-05-27,1078,1569
2017-05-28,1030,1509
2017-05-29,1188,1670,ESP Model Output (20170517)
2017-05-30,1231,1747
2017-05-31,1216,1718
2017-06-01,1127,1591
2017-06-02,1082,1580
2017-06-03,1147,1627
2017-06-04,1134,1678
2017-06-05,1159,1692
2017-06-06,1195,1685
2017-06-07,1218,1729
2017-06-08,1224,1729
2017-06-09,1216,1705
2017-06-10,1158,1612
2017-06-11,1118,1629
2017-06-12,1094,1479
2017-06-13,1080,1472
2017-06-14,1048,1398
2017-06-15,1014,1346
2017-06-16,992,1321
2017-06-17,986,1315
2017-06-18,975,1267
2017-06-19,947,1228
2017-06-20,936,1225
2017-06-21,931,1155
2017-06-22,865,1084
2017-06-23,818,1012
2017-06-24,794,976
2017-06-25,787,959
2017-06-26,753,912
2017-06-27,700,852
2017-06-28,639,790
2017-06-29,589,735
2017-06-30,549,684
2017-07-01,511,638
2017-07-02,467,588
2017-07-03,437,544
2017-07-04,399,509
2017-07-05,368,475
2017-07-06,345,438
2017-07-07,346,445
2017-07-08,315,428
2017-07-09,292,393
2017-07-10,277,372
2017-07-11,280,378
2017-07-12,251,342
2017-07-13,233,319
2017-07-14,224,304
2017-07-15,210,291
2017-07-16,204,278
2017-07-17,195,266
2017-07-18,186,255
2017-07-19,177,243
2017-07-20,168,241
2017-07-21,163,231
2017-07-22,157,222
2017-07-23,150,209
2017-07-24,146,204
2017-07-25,141,199
2017-07-26,136,190
2017-07-27,131,183
2017-07-28,127,179
2017-07-29,129,175
2017-07-30,125,171
2017-07-31,121,165


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.