North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 19 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-05-20,851,1237,Daily Model Output (20170519)
2017-05-21,789,1157
2017-05-22,1086,1194
2017-05-23,1092,1308
2017-05-24,1034,1355
2017-05-25,1012,1450
2017-05-26,1084,1588
2017-05-27,1263,1802
2017-05-28,1408,1986
2017-05-29,1451,2047
2017-05-30,1195,1697,ESP Model Output (20170518)
2017-05-31,1216,1738
2017-06-01,1115,1619
2017-06-02,1122,1608
2017-06-03,1139,1624
2017-06-04,1144,1650
2017-06-05,1175,1698
2017-06-06,1196,1693
2017-06-07,1222,1733
2017-06-08,1229,1741
2017-06-09,1220,1718
2017-06-10,1161,1623
2017-06-11,1121,1646
2017-06-12,1091,1485
2017-06-13,1083,1485
2017-06-14,1053,1415
2017-06-15,1013,1358
2017-06-16,983,1337
2017-06-17,964,1327
2017-06-18,979,1283
2017-06-19,940,1228
2017-06-20,932,1198
2017-06-21,930,1170
2017-06-22,868,1089
2017-06-23,833,1023
2017-06-24,795,981
2017-06-25,787,964
2017-06-26,754,916
2017-06-27,702,863
2017-06-28,635,778
2017-06-29,584,724
2017-06-30,536,675
2017-07-01,506,634
2017-07-02,473,586
2017-07-03,433,540
2017-07-04,398,497
2017-07-05,361,467
2017-07-06,347,443
2017-07-07,345,442
2017-07-08,314,424
2017-07-09,291,398
2017-07-10,279,376
2017-07-11,274,374
2017-07-12,250,344
2017-07-13,231,320
2017-07-14,226,302
2017-07-15,209,288
2017-07-16,205,280
2017-07-17,196,268
2017-07-18,187,257
2017-07-19,177,241
2017-07-20,168,238
2017-07-21,163,232
2017-07-22,157,223
2017-07-23,150,210
2017-07-24,147,204
2017-07-25,142,199
2017-07-26,137,192
2017-07-27,131,184
2017-07-28,128,180
2017-07-29,127,176
2017-07-30,124,170
2017-07-31,120,165


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.