North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 20 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-05-21,829,1304,Daily Model Output (20170520)
2017-05-22,916,1351
2017-05-23,939,1362
2017-05-24,861,1296
2017-05-25,930,1364
2017-05-26,1118,1594
2017-05-27,1202,1701
2017-05-28,1131,1619
2017-05-29,1046,1510
2017-05-30,1009,1457
2017-05-31,1382,1945,ESP Model Output (20170519)
2017-06-01,1256,1774
2017-06-02,1234,1749
2017-06-03,1266,1745
2017-06-04,1296,1802
2017-06-05,1257,1803
2017-06-06,1267,1762
2017-06-07,1311,1822
2017-06-08,1308,1821
2017-06-09,1299,1789
2017-06-10,1224,1678
2017-06-11,1195,1666
2017-06-12,1143,1542
2017-06-13,1131,1535
2017-06-14,1108,1467
2017-06-15,1054,1397
2017-06-16,1029,1381
2017-06-17,1009,1348
2017-06-18,1030,1324
2017-06-19,974,1255
2017-06-20,973,1222
2017-06-21,964,1184
2017-06-22,906,1127
2017-06-23,870,1060
2017-06-24,830,1009
2017-06-25,812,992
2017-06-26,789,946
2017-06-27,729,886
2017-06-28,664,809
2017-06-29,605,738
2017-06-30,563,686
2017-07-01,536,663
2017-07-02,505,614
2017-07-03,475,582
2017-07-04,437,538
2017-07-05,399,495
2017-07-06,366,461
2017-07-07,359,465
2017-07-08,323,435
2017-07-09,301,403
2017-07-10,289,385
2017-07-11,278,372
2017-07-12,259,346
2017-07-13,236,321
2017-07-14,233,307
2017-07-15,214,289
2017-07-16,212,286
2017-07-17,202,273
2017-07-18,192,262
2017-07-19,182,242
2017-07-20,171,241
2017-07-21,167,232
2017-07-22,161,226
2017-07-23,152,214
2017-07-24,151,207
2017-07-25,145,202
2017-07-26,140,195
2017-07-27,134,186
2017-07-28,131,182
2017-07-29,128,177
2017-07-30,124,171
2017-07-31,121,166


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.