North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 21 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-05-22,899,1180,Daily Model Output (20170521)
2017-05-23,937,1226
2017-05-24,878,1218
2017-05-25,1009,1389
2017-05-26,1239,1680
2017-05-27,1216,1680
2017-05-28,1071,1512
2017-05-29,970,1378
2017-05-30,954,1357
2017-05-31,962,1368
2017-06-01,1128,1582,ESP Model Output (20170520)
2017-06-02,1118,1601
2017-06-03,1189,1623
2017-06-04,1210,1678
2017-06-05,1195,1707
2017-06-06,1221,1713
2017-06-07,1278,1758
2017-06-08,1277,1773
2017-06-09,1280,1774
2017-06-10,1204,1651
2017-06-11,1188,1660
2017-06-12,1141,1529
2017-06-13,1154,1515
2017-06-14,1113,1482
2017-06-15,1059,1404
2017-06-16,1023,1381
2017-06-17,1014,1358
2017-06-18,1042,1332
2017-06-19,1004,1274
2017-06-20,983,1230
2017-06-21,988,1202
2017-06-22,929,1140
2017-06-23,898,1093
2017-06-24,862,1033
2017-06-25,839,1011
2017-06-26,810,966
2017-06-27,750,899
2017-06-28,686,824
2017-06-29,624,755
2017-06-30,598,723
2017-07-01,581,698
2017-07-02,544,657
2017-07-03,495,603
2017-07-04,453,556
2017-07-05,415,514
2017-07-06,397,496
2017-07-07,369,474
2017-07-08,331,443
2017-07-09,317,409
2017-07-10,295,387
2017-07-11,279,372
2017-07-12,263,347
2017-07-13,242,325
2017-07-14,236,309
2017-07-15,218,291
2017-07-16,214,285
2017-07-17,204,272
2017-07-18,196,261
2017-07-19,184,243
2017-07-20,174,240
2017-07-21,169,230
2017-07-22,162,224
2017-07-23,154,213
2017-07-24,152,208
2017-07-25,146,201
2017-07-26,141,193
2017-07-27,135,186
2017-07-28,132,181
2017-07-29,128,176
2017-07-30,124,170
2017-07-31,120,166


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.