North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 22 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-05-23,1300,1017,Daily Model Output (20170522)
2017-05-24,1070,1030
2017-05-25,1111,1338
2017-05-26,1334,1631
2017-05-27,1339,1636
2017-05-28,1186,1483
2017-05-29,1055,1352
2017-05-30,1007,1305
2017-05-31,1000,1297
2017-06-01,1120,1418
2017-06-02,1126,1574,ESP Model Output (20170521)
2017-06-03,1190,1636
2017-06-04,1221,1688
2017-06-05,1211,1704
2017-06-06,1223,1709
2017-06-07,1301,1747
2017-06-08,1290,1784
2017-06-09,1292,1775
2017-06-10,1212,1654
2017-06-11,1195,1679
2017-06-12,1131,1518
2017-06-13,1162,1543
2017-06-14,1121,1487
2017-06-15,1069,1414
2017-06-16,1034,1374
2017-06-17,1040,1353
2017-06-18,1045,1335
2017-06-19,1004,1286
2017-06-20,992,1247
2017-06-21,999,1227
2017-06-22,939,1151
2017-06-23,915,1114
2017-06-24,886,1062
2017-06-25,851,1019
2017-06-26,818,982
2017-06-27,752,904
2017-06-28,685,829
2017-06-29,641,775
2017-06-30,609,733
2017-07-01,604,732
2017-07-02,552,671
2017-07-03,490,597
2017-07-04,447,550
2017-07-05,410,508
2017-07-06,380,488
2017-07-07,375,471
2017-07-08,338,436
2017-07-09,314,409
2017-07-10,295,379
2017-07-11,278,369
2017-07-12,260,349
2017-07-13,243,320
2017-07-14,231,310
2017-07-15,220,293
2017-07-16,213,282
2017-07-17,203,270
2017-07-18,194,260
2017-07-19,185,244
2017-07-20,175,237
2017-07-21,168,228
2017-07-22,161,223
2017-07-23,155,210
2017-07-24,151,207
2017-07-25,145,201
2017-07-26,140,193
2017-07-27,134,185
2017-07-28,131,181
2017-07-29,127,176
2017-07-30,124,170
2017-07-31,120,166


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.