North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 23 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-05-24,1106,1033,Daily Model Output (20170523)
2017-05-25,1123,1202
2017-05-26,1396,1621
2017-05-27,1399,1698
2017-05-28,1486,1783
2017-05-29,1432,1729
2017-05-30,1178,1475
2017-05-31,1104,1400
2017-06-01,1176,1506
2017-06-02,1272,1771
2017-06-03,1312,1817,ESP Model Output (20170522)
2017-06-04,1298,1789
2017-06-05,1280,1798
2017-06-06,1270,1789
2017-06-07,1377,1836
2017-06-08,1354,1879
2017-06-09,1348,1852
2017-06-10,1252,1719
2017-06-11,1248,1714
2017-06-12,1178,1582
2017-06-13,1185,1597
2017-06-14,1150,1547
2017-06-15,1117,1470
2017-06-16,1079,1422
2017-06-17,1070,1375
2017-06-18,1080,1362
2017-06-19,1038,1316
2017-06-20,1019,1284
2017-06-21,1019,1243
2017-06-22,975,1194
2017-06-23,958,1167
2017-06-24,920,1104
2017-06-25,883,1050
2017-06-26,842,1019
2017-06-27,765,931
2017-06-28,692,851
2017-06-29,666,800
2017-06-30,629,756
2017-07-01,629,756
2017-07-02,580,697
2017-07-03,505,615
2017-07-04,462,567
2017-07-05,424,524
2017-07-06,398,509
2017-07-07,391,489
2017-07-08,351,445
2017-07-09,318,417
2017-07-10,314,397
2017-07-11,291,373
2017-07-12,272,352
2017-07-13,251,331
2017-07-14,241,317
2017-07-15,227,300
2017-07-16,217,290
2017-07-17,207,277
2017-07-18,200,267
2017-07-19,189,251
2017-07-20,180,244
2017-07-21,173,234
2017-07-22,166,226
2017-07-23,159,216
2017-07-24,154,209
2017-07-25,148,204
2017-07-26,143,196
2017-07-27,138,188
2017-07-28,133,183
2017-07-29,130,178
2017-07-30,126,173
2017-07-31,122,168


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.