North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 24 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-05-25,875,972,Daily Model Output (20170524)
2017-05-26,1112,1305
2017-05-27,1205,1494
2017-05-28,1255,1554
2017-05-29,980,1281
2017-05-30,937,1237
2017-05-31,1026,1327
2017-06-01,1216,1516
2017-06-02,1368,1668
2017-06-03,1394,1694
2017-06-04,1355,1880,ESP Model Output (20170523)
2017-06-05,1345,1849
2017-06-06,1311,1797
2017-06-07,1367,1866
2017-06-08,1365,1866
2017-06-09,1380,1899
2017-06-10,1265,1761
2017-06-11,1246,1748
2017-06-12,1203,1620
2017-06-13,1214,1628
2017-06-14,1165,1567
2017-06-15,1124,1500
2017-06-16,1105,1442
2017-06-17,1109,1405
2017-06-18,1098,1398
2017-06-19,1059,1343
2017-06-20,1024,1316
2017-06-21,1019,1244
2017-06-22,1001,1229
2017-06-23,954,1211
2017-06-24,937,1148
2017-06-25,881,1070
2017-06-26,850,1033
2017-06-27,774,941
2017-06-28,704,859
2017-06-29,683,827
2017-06-30,635,769
2017-07-01,627,752
2017-07-02,592,714
2017-07-03,522,638
2017-07-04,475,590
2017-07-05,442,545
2017-07-06,404,517
2017-07-07,407,500
2017-07-08,364,467
2017-07-09,336,434
2017-07-10,321,405
2017-07-11,308,407
2017-07-12,282,369
2017-07-13,262,338
2017-07-14,247,321
2017-07-15,230,306
2017-07-16,223,296
2017-07-17,213,283
2017-07-18,203,272
2017-07-19,193,259
2017-07-20,181,247
2017-07-21,177,238
2017-07-22,170,232
2017-07-23,160,220
2017-07-24,157,212
2017-07-25,151,208
2017-07-26,146,198
2017-07-27,140,190
2017-07-28,136,185
2017-07-29,132,180
2017-07-30,127,174
2017-07-31,123,171


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.