North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 25 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-05-26,1057,1186,Daily Model Output (20170525)
2017-05-27,1176,1309
2017-05-28,1152,1290
2017-05-29,954,1094
2017-05-30,910,1050
2017-05-31,987,1129
2017-06-01,1126,1268
2017-06-02,1278,1422
2017-06-03,1343,1488
2017-06-04,1322,1468
2017-06-05,1407,1937,ESP Model Output (20170524)
2017-06-06,1328,1847
2017-06-07,1437,1993
2017-06-08,1391,1916
2017-06-09,1397,1931
2017-06-10,1313,1810
2017-06-11,1304,1786
2017-06-12,1213,1660
2017-06-13,1231,1670
2017-06-14,1195,1595
2017-06-15,1148,1527
2017-06-16,1111,1485
2017-06-17,1132,1453
2017-06-18,1132,1420
2017-06-19,1079,1370
2017-06-20,1042,1344
2017-06-21,1022,1273
2017-06-22,1022,1265
2017-06-23,960,1247
2017-06-24,938,1171
2017-06-25,898,1110
2017-06-26,857,1042
2017-06-27,803,976
2017-06-28,729,891
2017-06-29,700,854
2017-06-30,650,791
2017-07-01,635,761
2017-07-02,598,728
2017-07-03,527,663
2017-07-04,478,610
2017-07-05,459,565
2017-07-06,421,522
2017-07-07,417,517
2017-07-08,373,480
2017-07-09,353,451
2017-07-10,327,423
2017-07-11,311,413
2017-07-12,291,376
2017-07-13,265,341
2017-07-14,251,331
2017-07-15,236,314
2017-07-16,230,304
2017-07-17,219,288
2017-07-18,208,279
2017-07-19,197,262
2017-07-20,185,251
2017-07-21,180,245
2017-07-22,172,235
2017-07-23,163,221
2017-07-24,159,217
2017-07-25,154,211
2017-07-26,148,202
2017-07-27,142,194
2017-07-28,138,188
2017-07-29,134,183
2017-07-30,129,177
2017-07-31,125,173


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.