North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 26 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-05-27,1277,1359,Daily Model Output (20170526)
2017-05-28,1360,1400
2017-05-29,1112,1235
2017-05-30,1046,1184
2017-05-31,1090,1230
2017-06-01,1174,1314
2017-06-02,1282,1422
2017-06-03,1357,1497
2017-06-04,1418,1558
2017-06-05,1454,1594
2017-06-06,1326,1850,ESP Model Output (20170525)
2017-06-07,1367,1908
2017-06-08,1341,1877
2017-06-09,1303,1818
2017-06-10,1276,1768
2017-06-11,1254,1757
2017-06-12,1173,1608
2017-06-13,1163,1617
2017-06-14,1175,1578
2017-06-15,1106,1512
2017-06-16,1084,1465
2017-06-17,1109,1446
2017-06-18,1102,1416
2017-06-19,1054,1348
2017-06-20,1018,1325
2017-06-21,995,1259
2017-06-22,998,1242
2017-06-23,936,1218
2017-06-24,917,1140
2017-06-25,866,1076
2017-06-26,829,1027
2017-06-27,769,954
2017-06-28,698,868
2017-06-29,687,835
2017-06-30,625,765
2017-07-01,608,734
2017-07-02,578,698
2017-07-03,517,644
2017-07-04,470,594
2017-07-05,441,547
2017-07-06,404,518
2017-07-07,394,490
2017-07-08,353,467
2017-07-09,322,433
2017-07-10,316,408
2017-07-11,303,405
2017-07-12,285,369
2017-07-13,259,335
2017-07-14,249,326
2017-07-15,233,310
2017-07-16,224,298
2017-07-17,213,284
2017-07-18,203,275
2017-07-19,193,261
2017-07-20,184,250
2017-07-21,177,240
2017-07-22,169,234
2017-07-23,162,219
2017-07-24,156,213
2017-07-25,152,210
2017-07-26,146,200
2017-07-27,139,191
2017-07-28,136,186
2017-07-29,132,181
2017-07-30,127,176
2017-07-31,123,171


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.