North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 27 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-05-28,1156,1380,Daily Model Output (20170527)
2017-05-29,963,1156
2017-05-30,961,1124
2017-05-31,1022,1162
2017-06-01,1151,1289
2017-06-02,1292,1430
2017-06-03,1334,1473
2017-06-04,1332,1471
2017-06-05,1337,1476
2017-06-06,1334,1473
2017-06-07,1424,1979,ESP Model Output (20170526)
2017-06-08,1374,1922
2017-06-09,1328,1841
2017-06-10,1237,1772
2017-06-11,1209,1757
2017-06-12,1170,1600
2017-06-13,1155,1605
2017-06-14,1134,1561
2017-06-15,1067,1487
2017-06-16,1062,1436
2017-06-17,1078,1408
2017-06-18,1074,1368
2017-06-19,1015,1305
2017-06-20,981,1271
2017-06-21,951,1202
2017-06-22,955,1200
2017-06-23,898,1163
2017-06-24,867,1085
2017-06-25,819,1011
2017-06-26,789,965
2017-06-27,721,892
2017-06-28,661,830
2017-06-29,631,779
2017-06-30,580,713
2017-07-01,570,694
2017-07-02,523,640
2017-07-03,490,602
2017-07-04,444,557
2017-07-05,411,514
2017-07-06,376,485
2017-07-07,351,459
2017-07-08,329,433
2017-07-09,306,406
2017-07-10,297,385
2017-07-11,283,375
2017-07-12,264,352
2017-07-13,246,321
2017-07-14,233,308
2017-07-15,221,293
2017-07-16,212,282
2017-07-17,202,270
2017-07-18,193,269
2017-07-19,184,251
2017-07-20,176,241
2017-07-21,169,233
2017-07-22,162,228
2017-07-23,156,214
2017-07-24,151,206
2017-07-25,145,205
2017-07-26,140,192
2017-07-27,135,185
2017-07-28,131,184
2017-07-29,128,178
2017-07-30,124,173
2017-07-31,121,167


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.