North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 28 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-05-29,995,1308,Daily Model Output (20170528)
2017-05-30,1052,1303
2017-05-31,1144,1333
2017-06-01,1302,1444
2017-06-02,1525,1664
2017-06-03,1576,1715
2017-06-04,1526,1664
2017-06-05,1508,1647
2017-06-06,1503,1642
2017-06-07,1477,1616
2017-06-08,1343,1869,ESP Model Output (20170527)
2017-06-09,1317,1821
2017-06-10,1229,1754
2017-06-11,1202,1744
2017-06-12,1160,1583
2017-06-13,1138,1592
2017-06-14,1132,1559
2017-06-15,1066,1477
2017-06-16,1054,1429
2017-06-17,1076,1413
2017-06-18,1065,1372
2017-06-19,1020,1305
2017-06-20,983,1258
2017-06-21,960,1211
2017-06-22,948,1199
2017-06-23,898,1159
2017-06-24,873,1083
2017-06-25,811,1009
2017-06-26,785,968
2017-06-27,711,883
2017-06-28,668,831
2017-06-29,632,781
2017-06-30,574,715
2017-07-01,567,691
2017-07-02,518,635
2017-07-03,479,597
2017-07-04,447,561
2017-07-05,414,518
2017-07-06,378,481
2017-07-07,352,457
2017-07-08,325,426
2017-07-09,300,398
2017-07-10,298,388
2017-07-11,279,372
2017-07-12,264,350
2017-07-13,247,324
2017-07-14,228,308
2017-07-15,217,294
2017-07-16,214,282
2017-07-17,204,269
2017-07-18,196,266
2017-07-19,182,253
2017-07-20,173,244
2017-07-21,166,234
2017-07-22,160,225
2017-07-23,154,216
2017-07-24,151,206
2017-07-25,147,201
2017-07-26,142,194
2017-07-27,137,185
2017-07-28,132,183
2017-07-29,129,177
2017-07-30,125,173
2017-07-31,121,167


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.