North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 29 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-05-30,1124,1395,Daily Model Output (20170529)
2017-05-31,1230,1454
2017-06-01,1289,1465
2017-06-02,1374,1514
2017-06-03,1401,1539
2017-06-04,1362,1499
2017-06-05,1385,1523
2017-06-06,1411,1549
2017-06-07,1404,1542
2017-06-08,1364,1503
2017-06-09,1368,1897,ESP Model Output (20170528)
2017-06-10,1285,1831
2017-06-11,1233,1765
2017-06-12,1169,1589
2017-06-13,1146,1584
2017-06-14,1127,1531
2017-06-15,1059,1434
2017-06-16,1053,1396
2017-06-17,1042,1352
2017-06-18,1026,1312
2017-06-19,982,1260
2017-06-20,940,1214
2017-06-21,912,1158
2017-06-22,901,1125
2017-06-23,852,1072
2017-06-24,796,1010
2017-06-25,745,926
2017-06-26,712,879
2017-06-27,653,824
2017-06-28,586,741
2017-06-29,568,705
2017-06-30,531,651
2017-07-01,512,637
2017-07-02,464,583
2017-07-03,419,533
2017-07-04,395,499
2017-07-05,361,462
2017-07-06,332,430
2017-07-07,321,418
2017-07-08,296,392
2017-07-09,276,377
2017-07-10,270,361
2017-07-11,256,349
2017-07-12,243,325
2017-07-13,228,308
2017-07-14,217,290
2017-07-15,204,277
2017-07-16,198,269
2017-07-17,189,258
2017-07-18,183,252
2017-07-19,174,238
2017-07-20,167,230
2017-07-21,161,222
2017-07-22,154,213
2017-07-23,148,205
2017-07-24,144,198
2017-07-25,139,193
2017-07-26,135,186
2017-07-27,130,180
2017-07-28,126,176
2017-07-29,123,170
2017-07-30,119,168
2017-07-31,116,162


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.