North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 30 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-05-31,1383,1436,Daily Model Output (20170530)
2017-06-01,1432,1467
2017-06-02,1534,1550
2017-06-03,1567,1569
2017-06-04,1579,1580
2017-06-05,1570,1572
2017-06-06,1490,1492
2017-06-07,1407,1408
2017-06-08,1342,1344
2017-06-09,1285,1287
2017-06-10,1312,1840,ESP Model Output (20170529)
2017-06-11,1262,1744
2017-06-12,1179,1620
2017-06-13,1178,1616
2017-06-14,1132,1522
2017-06-15,1070,1455
2017-06-16,1053,1416
2017-06-17,1055,1379
2017-06-18,1043,1347
2017-06-19,1001,1287
2017-06-20,962,1240
2017-06-21,939,1180
2017-06-22,912,1155
2017-06-23,858,1086
2017-06-24,820,1017
2017-06-25,774,953
2017-06-26,734,903
2017-06-27,678,833
2017-06-28,618,770
2017-06-29,579,716
2017-06-30,557,682
2017-07-01,532,659
2017-07-02,472,589
2017-07-03,426,542
2017-07-04,387,496
2017-07-05,379,479
2017-07-06,344,440
2017-07-07,331,427
2017-07-08,304,405
2017-07-09,285,385
2017-07-10,274,371
2017-07-11,259,349
2017-07-12,245,331
2017-07-13,233,314
2017-07-14,222,298
2017-07-15,211,284
2017-07-16,202,273
2017-07-17,193,262
2017-07-18,187,255
2017-07-19,177,241
2017-07-20,169,235
2017-07-21,163,225
2017-07-22,156,215
2017-07-23,149,206
2017-07-24,145,202
2017-07-25,140,196
2017-07-26,136,189
2017-07-27,131,182
2017-07-28,127,178
2017-07-29,125,173
2017-07-30,121,170
2017-07-31,118,163


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.