North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 31 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-06-01,1465,1512,Daily Model Output (20170531)
2017-06-02,1581,1612
2017-06-03,1512,1527
2017-06-04,1488,1490
2017-06-05,1529,1530
2017-06-06,1539,1540
2017-06-07,1496,1497
2017-06-08,1394,1396
2017-06-09,1290,1291
2017-06-10,1240,1240
2017-06-11,1225,1648,ESP Model Output (20170530)
2017-06-12,1165,1551
2017-06-13,1138,1488
2017-06-14,1098,1423
2017-06-15,1057,1377
2017-06-16,1038,1344
2017-06-17,1030,1296
2017-06-18,1005,1264
2017-06-19,967,1215
2017-06-20,934,1158
2017-06-21,906,1107
2017-06-22,878,1081
2017-06-23,815,1029
2017-06-24,775,951
2017-06-25,733,884
2017-06-26,694,835
2017-06-27,637,780
2017-06-28,580,710
2017-06-29,539,669
2017-06-30,518,633
2017-07-01,481,596
2017-07-02,430,535
2017-07-03,398,499
2017-07-04,367,466
2017-07-05,342,432
2017-07-06,316,403
2017-07-07,307,394
2017-07-08,288,382
2017-07-09,272,362
2017-07-10,260,346
2017-07-11,246,327
2017-07-12,232,311
2017-07-13,221,297
2017-07-14,212,284
2017-07-15,201,269
2017-07-16,194,259
2017-07-17,185,249
2017-07-18,180,242
2017-07-19,173,232
2017-07-20,162,223
2017-07-21,158,215
2017-07-22,151,206
2017-07-23,145,198
2017-07-24,141,193
2017-07-25,136,189
2017-07-26,133,183
2017-07-27,128,177
2017-07-28,124,172
2017-07-29,122,167
2017-07-30,118,164
2017-07-31,115,158


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.