North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 01 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-06-02,1448,1505,Daily Model Output (20170601)
2017-06-03,1443,1479
2017-06-04,1457,1474
2017-06-05,1541,1542
2017-06-06,1619,1625
2017-06-07,1583,1695
2017-06-08,1494,1700
2017-06-09,1442,1710
2017-06-10,1393,1709
2017-06-11,1331,1638
2017-06-12,1170,1500,ESP Model Output (20170531)
2017-06-13,1139,1425
2017-06-14,1078,1356
2017-06-15,1040,1318
2017-06-16,1020,1283
2017-06-17,1016,1233
2017-06-18,988,1197
2017-06-19,949,1152
2017-06-20,915,1111
2017-06-21,886,1070
2017-06-22,854,1016
2017-06-23,791,959
2017-06-24,748,892
2017-06-25,708,834
2017-06-26,663,790
2017-06-27,628,749
2017-06-28,571,684
2017-06-29,523,635
2017-06-30,499,604
2017-07-01,460,565
2017-07-02,415,513
2017-07-03,379,472
2017-07-04,347,437
2017-07-05,328,409
2017-07-06,313,392
2017-07-07,293,369
2017-07-08,281,362
2017-07-09,263,343
2017-07-10,253,326
2017-07-11,235,313
2017-07-12,224,297
2017-07-13,213,283
2017-07-14,208,273
2017-07-15,195,259
2017-07-16,190,250
2017-07-17,182,240
2017-07-18,178,233
2017-07-19,170,224
2017-07-20,160,216
2017-07-21,157,207
2017-07-22,149,199
2017-07-23,143,192
2017-07-24,138,186
2017-07-25,135,181
2017-07-26,132,178
2017-07-27,127,173
2017-07-28,123,167
2017-07-29,121,164
2017-07-30,118,160
2017-07-31,114,154


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.