North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 02 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-06-03,1688,1685,Daily Model Output (20170602)
2017-06-04,1591,1589
2017-06-05,1576,1576
2017-06-06,1580,1585
2017-06-07,1571,1679
2017-06-08,1530,1735
2017-06-09,1465,1737
2017-06-10,1383,1702
2017-06-11,1311,1620
2017-06-12,1236,1519
2017-06-13,1189,1465,ESP Model Output (20170601)
2017-06-14,1118,1357
2017-06-15,1062,1315
2017-06-16,1022,1256
2017-06-17,1006,1204
2017-06-18,966,1159
2017-06-19,929,1110
2017-06-20,886,1074
2017-06-21,866,1022
2017-06-22,805,955
2017-06-23,753,892
2017-06-24,706,834
2017-06-25,672,795
2017-06-26,629,746
2017-06-27,593,708
2017-06-28,529,637
2017-06-29,503,601
2017-06-30,467,566
2017-07-01,435,530
2017-07-02,394,488
2017-07-03,360,449
2017-07-04,332,416
2017-07-05,311,396
2017-07-06,291,369
2017-07-07,275,348
2017-07-08,264,338
2017-07-09,249,324
2017-07-10,237,312
2017-07-11,226,298
2017-07-12,215,284
2017-07-13,205,272
2017-07-14,200,261
2017-07-15,187,250
2017-07-16,183,239
2017-07-17,175,230
2017-07-18,172,223
2017-07-19,165,215
2017-07-20,155,209
2017-07-21,151,201
2017-07-22,144,192
2017-07-23,139,186
2017-07-24,135,181
2017-07-25,131,176
2017-07-26,128,171
2017-07-27,124,168
2017-07-28,121,164
2017-07-29,118,160
2017-07-30,115,156
2017-07-31,112,151


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.