North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 03 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-06-04,1607,1751,Daily Model Output (20170603)
2017-06-05,1629,1722
2017-06-06,1560,1602
2017-06-07,1525,1601
2017-06-08,1538,1719
2017-06-09,1514,1774
2017-06-10,1444,1753
2017-06-11,1376,1696
2017-06-12,1278,1569
2017-06-13,1161,1419
2017-06-14,1128,1380,ESP Model Output (20170602)
2017-06-15,1066,1301
2017-06-16,1023,1252
2017-06-17,1003,1215
2017-06-18,962,1148
2017-06-19,929,1106
2017-06-20,876,1065
2017-06-21,846,1008
2017-06-22,795,936
2017-06-23,732,889
2017-06-24,696,824
2017-06-25,661,787
2017-06-26,623,747
2017-06-27,583,695
2017-06-28,524,629
2017-06-29,494,598
2017-06-30,455,554
2017-07-01,427,526
2017-07-02,392,485
2017-07-03,360,450
2017-07-04,331,416
2017-07-05,308,392
2017-07-06,289,367
2017-07-07,273,349
2017-07-08,259,336
2017-07-09,245,322
2017-07-10,234,308
2017-07-11,223,294
2017-07-12,213,281
2017-07-13,203,268
2017-07-14,196,257
2017-07-15,186,247
2017-07-16,180,237
2017-07-17,172,227
2017-07-18,169,222
2017-07-19,162,213
2017-07-20,155,206
2017-07-21,150,199
2017-07-22,142,191
2017-07-23,138,186
2017-07-24,134,180
2017-07-25,131,175
2017-07-26,128,171
2017-07-27,123,167
2017-07-28,119,163
2017-07-29,117,159
2017-07-30,114,155
2017-07-31,111,150


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.