North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 04 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-06-05,1390,1800,Daily Model Output (20170604)
2017-06-06,1485,1748
2017-06-07,1439,1885
2017-06-08,1416,1803
2017-06-09,1453,1822
2017-06-10,1420,1767
2017-06-11,1343,1658
2017-06-12,1227,1505
2017-06-13,1110,1357
2017-06-14,1039,1262
2017-06-15,1066,1299,ESP Model Output (20170603)
2017-06-16,1028,1262
2017-06-17,996,1202
2017-06-18,953,1137
2017-06-19,912,1097
2017-06-20,874,1054
2017-06-21,836,999
2017-06-22,793,929
2017-06-23,735,883
2017-06-24,692,820
2017-06-25,656,783
2017-06-26,622,748
2017-06-27,577,689
2017-06-28,511,621
2017-06-29,476,583
2017-06-30,447,552
2017-07-01,421,516
2017-07-02,382,476
2017-07-03,349,439
2017-07-04,322,408
2017-07-05,302,384
2017-07-06,283,363
2017-07-07,270,344
2017-07-08,256,334
2017-07-09,244,318
2017-07-10,233,306
2017-07-11,222,293
2017-07-12,212,279
2017-07-13,202,267
2017-07-14,193,255
2017-07-15,185,246
2017-07-16,178,236
2017-07-17,171,227
2017-07-18,169,219
2017-07-19,163,211
2017-07-20,155,204
2017-07-21,150,198
2017-07-22,142,190
2017-07-23,138,185
2017-07-24,134,180
2017-07-25,130,175
2017-07-26,127,170
2017-07-27,123,167
2017-07-28,119,163
2017-07-29,116,158
2017-07-30,113,155
2017-07-31,110,150


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.