North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 06 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-06-07,2005,2060,Daily Model Output (20170606)
2017-06-08,2017,2195
2017-06-09,1827,2081
2017-06-10,1705,1985
2017-06-11,1582,1842
2017-06-12,1417,1648
2017-06-13,1264,1468
2017-06-14,1145,1329
2017-06-15,1076,1246
2017-06-16,1045,1204
2017-06-17,1134,1276,ESP Model Output (20170605)
2017-06-18,1103,1240
2017-06-19,1061,1195
2017-06-20,1034,1165
2017-06-21,995,1112
2017-06-22,954,1065
2017-06-23,871,985
2017-06-24,821,925
2017-06-25,750,846
2017-06-26,671,780
2017-06-27,608,713
2017-06-28,547,637
2017-06-29,501,584
2017-06-30,463,543
2017-07-01,428,507
2017-07-02,388,465
2017-07-03,352,429
2017-07-04,329,405
2017-07-05,312,384
2017-07-06,296,363
2017-07-07,282,344
2017-07-08,267,326
2017-07-09,253,312
2017-07-10,241,302
2017-07-11,230,290
2017-07-12,219,276
2017-07-13,209,263
2017-07-14,199,253
2017-07-15,190,243
2017-07-16,186,235
2017-07-17,178,226
2017-07-18,175,223
2017-07-19,168,214
2017-07-20,158,205
2017-07-21,153,197
2017-07-22,147,190
2017-07-23,142,184
2017-07-24,137,178
2017-07-25,133,173
2017-07-26,131,169
2017-07-27,126,164
2017-07-28,122,161
2017-07-29,120,156
2017-07-30,116,154
2017-07-31,113,148


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.