North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 07 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-06-08,2323,2578,Daily Model Output (20170607)
2017-06-09,2025,2342
2017-06-10,1738,2037
2017-06-11,1599,1876
2017-06-12,1486,1738
2017-06-13,1369,1594
2017-06-14,1188,1390
2017-06-15,1042,1228
2017-06-16,1024,1199
2017-06-17,1033,1198
2017-06-18,1067,1228,ESP Model Output (20170606)
2017-06-19,1037,1190
2017-06-20,1017,1157
2017-06-21,965,1112
2017-06-22,925,1052
2017-06-23,849,963
2017-06-24,791,903
2017-06-25,724,830
2017-06-26,640,754
2017-06-27,576,686
2017-06-28,522,616
2017-06-29,484,575
2017-06-30,446,530
2017-07-01,411,491
2017-07-02,375,453
2017-07-03,347,423
2017-07-04,319,397
2017-07-05,299,380
2017-07-06,290,361
2017-07-07,277,343
2017-07-08,261,327
2017-07-09,248,312
2017-07-10,239,301
2017-07-11,227,289
2017-07-12,217,275
2017-07-13,207,263
2017-07-14,197,252
2017-07-15,189,243
2017-07-16,183,237
2017-07-17,174,228
2017-07-18,171,221
2017-07-19,164,212
2017-07-20,155,204
2017-07-21,149,197
2017-07-22,144,191
2017-07-23,138,184
2017-07-24,135,178
2017-07-25,131,173
2017-07-26,129,169
2017-07-27,125,164
2017-07-28,121,160
2017-07-29,118,156
2017-07-30,115,153
2017-07-31,112,148


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.